Thinking 2

• What is the representativeness heuristic?

  A cognitive shortcut where people judge the likelihood of an event based on how closely it resembles a typical case.
• What biases in judgement can be caused by the representativeness heuristic?

  It can lead to overestimating the likelihood of events that are more representative of a stereotype.
• What is the availability heuristic?

  A cognitive shortcut where people assess the frequency of an event based on how easily examples come to mind.
• What biases in judgement can be caused by the availability heuristic?

  It can lead to overestimating the likelihood of events that are more memorable or frequently reported in the media.
• What is base rate neglect?

  It is the tendency to ignore the general prevalence of an event in favor of specific information about a case.
• In what situations is base rate neglect likely to occur?

  It is likely to occur when specific case information is more salient than general statistical data.
• What is normative reasoning in decision-making?

  • Involves using probable information to make decisions.
  • Probability theories help define the best possible decision.
  • Bayes Theorem is a key mathematical rule used in this context.
• What type of information do real decision-making scenarios often include?

  Probable information, such as the likelihood of an event occurring.
• What is Bayes Theorem used for?

  It is used to invert conditional probabilities to find the probability of a cause given its effect.
• What does reasoning according to mathematical theories provide in decision-making scenarios?

  It provides normative answers to those scenarios.
• What has much psychological research focused on regarding human reasoning?

  It has focused on situations where human reasoning is not normative.
• Who systematically investigated biases in human reasoning?

  Kahneman and Tversky
• What do Kahneman and Tversky propose about biases in reasoning?

  They propose that biases occur because people often use heuristics to answer complex probabilistic questions.
• What are the two main heuristics discussed in the study material?

  1. The representativeness heuristic
  2. The availability heuristic
• Who introduced the concept of the representativeness heuristic?

  Kahneman and Tversky in 1972
• How is the likelihood of an event evaluated in the representativeness heuristic?

  It is evaluated by how representative it is of the major characteristics of the process or population it originated from.
• What assumption does the representativeness heuristic make about typical members of a category?

  It assumes that typical members are encountered more frequently.
• What method did Kahneman and Tversky use in their 1973 study on the representativeness heuristic?

  • Participants judged professions based on brief character descriptions.
  • A box contained 100 descriptions: 30 engineers and 70 lawyers.
  • Participants had to decide the profession based on the description drawn.
• What was the description of Jack in the Kahneman and Tversky (1973) study?

  Jack is a 45-year-old man, married with four children, conservative, careful, and ambitious.
• What was the description of Dick in the Kahneman and Tversky (1973) study?

  Dick is a 30-year-old man, married with no children, and highly motivated.
• What percentage of participants judged Dick to be an engineer?

  50%
• What percentage of participants judged Jack to be an engineer?

  90%
• What was the result for the blank card in the Kahneman and Tversky (1973) study?

  30% of participants judged the blank card to be an engineer.
• What did participants ignore when judging the professions in the Kahneman and Tversky (1973) study?

  They ignored the base rate probabilities and based their judgement on the descriptions.

  
• What is the Linda Problem proposed by Tversky and Kahneman (1981)?

  It presents a scenario about Linda, a woman described as single, outspoken, and a philosophy major.
• What were the two options given in the Linda Problem?

  1. Linda is a bank teller; b) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
• What percentage of subjects believed Linda was more likely to be a feminist bank teller than just a bank teller?

  90%
• What is the conjunction fallacy?

  It is a reasoning error where people think the chances of two events happening together are greater than one of those events happening alone.
• Why do Tversky and Kahneman propose the conjunction fallacy occurs?

  They propose it occurs because specific scenarios appear more likely than general ones due to representativeness.
• What is the Gambler’s Fallacy?

  • It is the mistaken belief that future random events are influenced by past events.
  • Example: Expecting a losing streak to end based on previous outcomes.
  • The probability of each event remains constant regardless of past occurrences.
• What do Kahneman and Tversky (1972) suggest about sequences of events in relation to randomness?

  They suggest that some sequences represent our conception of randomness better than others.
• What is the summary of the representativeness heuristic?

  • Judging the likelihood of an event based on its resemblance to a prototype.
  • Can be a helpful cognitive shortcut.
  • Can lead to errors in judgement, such as the conjunction fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy.
• What is the main question posed in the availability heuristic section?

  Which of the following is more likely: being killed by a shark, falling airplane parts, a car accident, or stomach cancer?
• Why do most people get the likelihood questions wrong in the availability heuristic section?

  They often have more information available about the less likely events due to media coverage.
• What did Tversky and Kahneman (1974) define the availability heuristic as?


  A rule of thumb where decision makers assess the frequency of an event by the ease of recalling instances.