Decision Making

• What is the purpose of the lecture on Reasoning / Decision Making?

  To explore cognitive approaches to thinking
• What does the term "Judgement" refer to in decision making?

  Calculating the likelihood of certain events
• How is "Decision Making" defined?

  Selecting one out of a number of options
• What are the cognitive processes involved in "Problem Solving"?

  Recognizing a problem and developing a solution
• What is "Reasoning" in the context of problem solving?

  Determining conclusions from assumed true premises
• What is the significance of the Frontal Cortex in thinking and reasoning?

  It is involved in cognitive processes
• What is the challenge in estimating likelihoods according to the text?

  We are particularly bad at estimating likelihoods
• What example is given to illustrate poor estimation of likelihood?

  Testing for a disease with false positives
• How does rephrasing a question affect our understanding of probabilities?

  It can improve understanding by emphasizing frequencies
• What are heuristics in the context of judgment?

  Strategies used to simplify decision making
• What are the three types of heuristics mentioned?

  Availability, Representativeness, Anchoring and adjustment
• What does the Availability Heuristic involve?

  Estimating frequency based on ease of recall
• What is the Representativeness Heuristic?

  Assigning high probability to typical events
• What is the Anchoring and Adjustment heuristic?

  Starting with an initial estimate and adjusting
• What is the significance of Utility Theory in decision making?

  It suggests choosing the option with greatest utility
• What does Prospect Theory explain?

  We are loss averse and focus on potential losses
• What is the Framing Effect in decision making?


  How options are presented affects choices
• What are the three aspects of problem solving?

  Goal directed, immediate solution not available, conscious processes
• What is a well-specified problem?

  Clear about the problem, operators, and solution
• What is the "aha" experience in problem solving?

  Insight leading to a transformation of the problem
• What is Functional Fixedness?

  Thinking of an item only in its standard function
• What is Deductive Reasoning?

  Conclusion is certain if premises are true
• What is Inductive Reasoning?

  Conclusions are likely but require further evidence
• What are Syllogisms in reasoning?

  Logical arguments with premises leading to conclusions
• What is Conditional Reasoning?

  Inferences based on "if-then" statements
• What is the significance of Wason’s selection task?

  It tests understanding of logical rules
• What are the implications of cognitive limitations in thinking?

  We use heuristics and show systematic biases
• How can education and training affect our decision-making abilities?

  It can improve but not eliminate biases
• What are the four broad categories of research into thinking?

  • Judgment
  • Decision Making
  • Problem Solving
  • Reasoning
• What are the key differences and similarities in decision making, judgment, problem solving, and reasoning?

  • Key differences exist among them
  • Underlying similarities in cognitive processes
• What are the three parts of a problem in problem solving?

  1. The problem itself (start state)
  2. The things you might do (operators)
  3. The solution (goal state)
• What are the early approaches to problem solving?

  1. Behaviourism - trial and error learning
  2. Gestalt psychology - insight and functional fixedness
• What are the two valid inferences in conditional reasoning?

  1. Modus ponens
  2. Modus tollens
• What are the two invalid inferences in conditional reasoning?

  1. Affirming the consequent
  2. Denying the antecedent
• What is the role of confirmation bias in hypothesis testing?

  • Tendency to seek confirming information
  • Ignoring information that could falsify a theory
• What are the implications of systematic biases in thinking and reasoning?

  • Reveal cognitive mechanisms used
  • Indicate areas for improvement in decision making
• What is the significance of building systems that cater to human weaknesses?

  • To improve decision making and judgment
  • To account for cognitive limitations