population predictions

• Malthus - Pessimistic prediction

  • population grows exponentially whereas food supply only grows arithmetically
  • cycle of misery - die from starvation then the land would recover so the population would grow again
  • population wouldn't reach above 1 billion but it is now 8 billion
  • he didn't look globally at China's food revolution or selective breeding
  • Irish potato Famine - proves his theory as the population was wiped out then land recovered so population grew but not fully
  • population grew until the lower class suffered hardship and want and greater suceptibility to famine and disease
• pessimistic predications


  • unless population growth was slowed the exponential rise would outstrip food supply and lead to disastrous consequences - war, famine, disease
  • population will always outstrip its food supply causing starvation a natural check on population
• Malthus' checks


  • checks help to reduce population by increasing death rates
  • moral restraints (preventative checks) - reducing fertility, decaying marriage to limit population growth
  • Misery (increases death rate) - low living standards resulting in war, famine, disease
  • outstrip of resources (natural) - high death rate due to starvation so population declines
• why was Malthus incorrect

  • society changes - education of women, contraceptives
  • technology - mechanisation, irrigation, green revolution, fertilisers
  • globalisation
  • migration
  • healthcare - medication, vaccines
  • innovation - hydroponics, aeroponics, green revolution
• Malthus - Nigeria 


  • local rice production increased from 268,840 thousand metric tonnes between 1960-69 to 2,678,900 from 2010-15
  • the demand for rice was above the amount produced showing population grows faster than food production
  • HIV/AIDS epidemic was a positive check causing lots of deaths
  • had high levels of malaria, poverty and fertility rates
  • high levels of poverty supports the increasing population would cause a decline in living standard
  • didn't account for the importation of food
• Malthus - Rwanda genocide 1994

  • happened due to population pressures
  • over 1 million people died in 100 days
  • population combined with lagging technological advancements caused food production to not be able to keep up with its population
  • Malthus thought that food supply depleting would result in war and famine
• Malthus - Somalia 


  • 12 million people at risk or starvation in a region whose population has doubled in the past 24 years
  • food supply can't support population so will lead to population decline until resources can recover
• Boserup - oportunistic prediction

  • no matter how large population grows, the population will always discover new ways to sustain food supplies
  • 'necessity is mother of invention' - Boserup
  • as population increases agriculture becomes higher intensity through innovation, intensive farming so the available resources increase
  • he admits over population lead to unsustainable farming practices and environmental degradation
  • assumes a 'closed society' with no migration
• Simon - opportunistic prediction

  • supports Boserup
  • humans are the 'ultimate resource' and in spite of finite resources, human will come up with new ways to sustain resources
• future patterns 


  • UK life expectancy is decreasing it fell to what it was 10 years previously
  • Fertility rate in decline from 2.5 to 2 per women in 2100
  • life expectancy is increasing globally
  • youthful structure is creating a demographic dividend in fast growing populations e.g. Nigeria
  • More ageing populations in stage 4 or 5 of DTM
  • 12% of global population aged over 60 in 2015 and rose to 25% by 2050 (1 in 4)