Top down offender profiling, also known as criminal investigative analysis, was developed by the FBI in America and uses pre-existing categories of offenders called organized or disorganized.
The profiler uses the crime scene evidence to match the offender to one of those categories based on their own professional experience and effectively their intuition.
This approach uses large data sets collected from other similar crimes and from that we can make assumptions such as how far the offender traveled to commit their crime.
Cantor demonstrated that 87% of a sample of 45 British serial assaulters fitted the marauding definition, providing evidence for the idea that criminals choose to offend around their home base.
The Barnum effect is a technique often used in horoscopes and personality tests, where general and vague statements are accepted as true and insightful.
Geographic profiling is an aspect of investigative psychology used to focus resources by narrowing down search areas based on the assumption that the location of the crime isn't a random choice.
Forensic techniques can lead to the effective hiding of evidence, suggesting that the individual has been arrested for previous crimes and forensic evidence was used against them.
Offender profiling is often used in combination with other forensic techniques, making it difficult to identify exactly what factor led to a case being solved.
The circle hypothesis is the idea that if you draw a circle with the two furthest offenses on the circumference line, then the offender's home base was likely to be within the circle.
Snook found that 94% of Canadian officers agreed that profiling helped solve cases, but the results of a study by Allison suggest that profiling may not be as effective as it appears.
The least effort principle suggests that if the criminal has a choice between two equally attractive locations, they're going to choose the one closest to their base.
Disorganized offenders are likely to have a lower than average level of intelligence, commit the crime in a disorganized manner, and are unlikely to be following the media coverage of the crime they committed.
Organized offenders are likely to leave evidence at the crime scene, the body is often left where the offence happened, and all of this reflects a higher than average level of intelligence.
Disorganized offenders are likely to leave little evidence at the crime scene, the body is often left where the offence happened, and all of this reflects a lower than average level of intelligence.
Disorganized offenders are likely to be restrained, have a lower than average level of intelligence, and are unlikely to be following the media coverage of the crime they committed.
Organized offenders are likely to have average or higher than average intelligence, follow the report of the crime in the media, and commit the crime in a planned manner using whatever objects were around as a weapon.