Chapter 1

• _______ make decisions. That’s what they aretrained to do; that’s why they are hired, and that’s what they get paid for doing.”


  Managers
• Successful managers use what approaches?


  quantitative approaches
• Successful managers use quantitative approaches when

  1. the problem is complex

  2. involves many variables

  3. there are data which describes the decision environment

  4. there are data which describe the value or utility of the different possible alternatives

  5. the goals of the decision maker or her organization can be described in quantitative terms

  6. workable models are available for these situation.
• ________ as it is commonly called, Helps managers make better decisions

  MANAGEMENT SCIENCE/OPERATION RESEARCH: or MS/OR
• Step 1: -Activities: SITE VISITS CONFERENCES OBSERVATION RESEARCHES

  -Output: SUFFICIENT INFORMATION AND SUPPORT TO PROCEED

  OBSERVE THE PROBLEM ENVIRONMENT
• Step 2 -A:DEFINE USE DEFINE OBJECTIVES DEFINE LIMITATIONS -O:CLEAR GRASP OF NEED FOR AND NATURE OF SOLUTION REQUESTED

  ANALYZE AND DEFINE THE PROBLEM
• Step 3: -A: MS/OR TOOLS INTERRELATIONSHIPS MATHEMATICAL MODEL -O: MODEL THAT WORKS UNDER STATED ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS

  DEVELOP A MODEL
• Step 4: -A: INTERNAL-EXTERNAL DATA FACTS OPINIONS COMPUTER DATA BANKS O: SUFFICIENT INPUTS TO OPERATE AND TEST MODEL

  SELECT APPROPRIATE DATA INPUT
• Step 5: -A: TESTING LIMITATIONS VERIFICATION -O: SOLUTION(S) THAT SUPPORT CURRENT ORGANIZATIONAL OBJECTIVES

  PROVIDE A SOLUTION AND TEST ITS REASONABLENESS
• Step 6: -A: BEHAVIORAL ISSUES “SELLING” THE IDEA MANAGEMENT INVOLVEMENT EXPLANATIONS -O: “OWNERSHIP” BY THE MANAGEMENT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LONGER RUN OPERATION OF MODEL

  IMPLEMENT THE SOLUTION
• Chapter 18 of the Book of Exodus

  Moses' father-in-law Jethro
• 1832, On Economy of Machinery and Manufacturer

  Charles Babbage
• - Late nineteenth century, industrial engineering into profession. - Application of the scientific method to a management problem

  Frederick W. Taylor
• - Early scientific management era, scheduling production. - Industrial engineer to MS/OR, a multidisciplinary approach to complex problems.

  Henry L. Gantt
• MS/OR emerged as a separate field when

  1. industrial engineer became interested in the overall operations of the firm and

  2. natural and social scientist became interested in management problems
• scientist and engineers have been involved with ________

  Military activities
• - Pre world war II- naval siege of Syracuse- standard clothing sizes for Union army.

  Achimedes
• - treat military operations quantitatively

  - equating relating to battle using relative numerical strength of the combatants and their relative strength

  F. W. Lanchester
• - anti submarine warfare

  - analyzed the merits of zigzagging as a merchant ship countermeasure against submarines

  Thomas Alva Edison
• - Solutions of Some Problems in the Theory of Probabilities of Significance in Automatic Telephone Exchanges

  - waiting time formulas is important to telephone traffic.

  A. K. Erlang
• - develops the first inventory model

  F.W. Harris
• - APPLIES STATISTICAL INFERENCE

  Walter SHEWHART
• the utilization of statistical inference and probability theory was aided by the work of

  H.F. Dodge and H.G. Romig
• - Modern Statistical Method

  Ronald Fisher
• - Develops a linear programming model

  Wassily Leontieff
• - first proponents of business MS/OR - does MS/OR work in the decade 1920-1930

  Horace C. Levinson
• - World war II - nucleus- improving the early-warning radar system, anti craft gunnery, anti submarine warfare, civilian defense, convoy size and bombing raids

  Early British Operations Research Group
• - three physiologists, tow mathematical physicist, one astrophysicist, one army officer, one surveyor, one general physicists, and two mathematicians- Fellow of Royal Society

  Blacketts Circuss
• two americans who were instrumental in the development of MS/OR

  Early United States operations research groups
• -Post-world war IIwere not discontinues at the end of the war

  Army and Navy
• - develops the samplex method

  Dantzig
• ORSA and TIMS

  Operation Research Society of America and The Institute of Management Sciences
• grown rapidly in business, government units and private institutions.

  MS/OR
• steps will help the relationship between the work of the MS/OR specialist and managerial generalist or decision maker

  Six steps of the scientific methodology
• STEPS IN PROBLEM, RECOGNITION, FORMULATION, AND SOLUTION- RECOGNIZE FROM ORGANIZATIONAL SYMPTOMS THAT A PROBLEM EXIST.

  INVOLVEMENT: QUANTITATIVE SPECIALIST OR MANAGERIAL GENERALIST
• DECIDE WHAT ARE VARIABLE ARE INVOLVED, STATE THE PROBLEM IN QUANTITATIVE

  MANAGERIAL GENERALIST AND QUANTITATIVE SPECIALIST
• INVESTIGATE METHODS FOR SOLVING THE PROBLEMS AS STATED ABOVE

  QUANTITATIVE SPECIALIST
• ATTEMPT SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEMS, FIND VARIOUS SOLUTIONS, STATE ASSUMPTIONS.

  QUANTITATIVE SPECIALIST
• DETERMINE WHICH SOLUTION IS MOST EFFECTIVE

  MANAGERIAL GENERALIST AND QUANTITATIVE SPECIALIST
• CHOOSE THE SOLUTION TO BE USED

  MANAGERIAL GENERALIST