voting behaviour (done)

• Class importance / de alignment

  • Traditionally up to 1970s - blue collar voted Lab, white collar voted Cons
  • 2019 Lab held 72/100 constits with the highest working class %
  • All 5 constits Liv strong Lab over 70%, despite Lab doing poorly nationally
  • 2024 C2 and DE more likely to vote reform

  BUT

  • Manual Labour dropped from 58% in 1960s to around 20% today
  • 2019 42% AB voted Cons, 78% in 1964
  • 2019 34% DE voted Lab compared to 64% in 1964
  • 1997 34% ABC1 - Lab, 39% - Cons
  • Narrow gap
• Age voting

  
  

  YouGov new dividing line in 2017

  In 2024 18-24 year olds voted:

  • Green 18%
  • Lab 41%
  • Reform 9%
  • Cons 8%

  60+ voted

  • Green 3%
  • Lab 24%
  • Reform 16%
  • Cons 40%

  Turnout in 65+ age group was 25 percentage points higher than 18-24 in 2017
• Education

  • 2019 - 43% with degrees or higher qualifications voted Lab, compared to 29% for Cons
  • 2019. - Cons won 58% of votes among those whose highest qualification was GCSEs
  • In the EU ref, those without qualifications 75% voted for Brexit, those without degrees or higher were 75% against
  • 2024 - those with qualifications more likely to vote for Labour/ Lib dem’s, those without more likely to vote Reform or Cons
  • Lower levels of edu - authoritarian values, higher levels of edu - libertarian values

  
  

  BUT

  • Could be seen as new class divide, lower education = lower paid jobs
  • Reform won higher share of votes in both working class category and lower edu attainment category
  • Brexit could be seen as temporary
• Region

  Traditionally Lab major cities, northern urban, Cons rural, south, changed in 1997

  • Blair appealed to middle england and won South East and East Midlands
  • 2010 - SNP shattered Labour dominance in Scotland
  • 2019 - Cons broke the traditionally Labour red wall in the North, majorities of over 20k were flipped
  • 2019 - Cons won 56/131 seats in North and Wales (traditionally Labour heartlands), BUT in 2024 won 4/131, Labour won back
  • 2024 Cons 121 seats almost exclusively rural
  • Lab won 37/57 seats in Scotland

  BUT

  • Cons losing Lab heartlands does not reflect region - simply did poorly overall
  • 2019 - Cons won 74/91 seats in SE BUT in 2024 only won 30/91
  • Previously region was just seen as a class divide - North had high conc of working class
  • Now region can be seen as age/ edu divide - cities have higher conc of younger more educated voters, rural high conc of older voters with low edu attainment
• Party leader importance

  • esp when there is few diffs in policy
  • 1997 - televised debates, Blair vs Major (mocked in cartoons)
  • 2010 - Nick Clegg success for Lib dems
  • 2010 - Cameron vs Brown
  • Role in unifying swing voters - 2019 Boris Johnson, presented himself as separate from traditional Cons image
  • Poor leaders have negative impact
  • Corbyn
  • YouGov 2024 - Sunak net favourability was -51%, Starmer was -17%, due to D-day event, partygate, wealth etc
• Policy impact, rational choice and issue based

  • Behave like consumers, reflecting more educated electorate - pick the policies that serve their best interest
  • Economic voting
  • EG. 40% with montages or renting voted Lab - since Lab promised improvements for rental conditions and mortgages under Cons had increased, compared to 25% who owned home voted Lab
  • Education policies
  • EG. More younger voters voted Corbyn due to promise to abolish tuition fees
  • Issue based voting
  • EG. 2019 74% leave voters voted Cons, 49% of Remain voters voted Lab
• Perceived competence

  • 1979 - Lab voted out because of the perception that they could not manage the economy - trade unions, strikes, winter of discontent 1979 etc
  • Cons used the slogan ‘Lab isn’t working’
  • Economic competence
  • EG. 1997 - Black Wednesday catastrophe under Cons 1992, Lab consistently ahead in polls after 1992, Lab pledged not to increase income tax and prioritise national finances - Cons had lost reputation of being able to manage the economy
  • Incompetence of Cons since 2019 election had large role in Lab landslide victory 2024 - vote share dropped from 43.6% to 23.7%
  • Partygate, Truss’ mini budget which caused pounds value to plummet in 2022
  • YouGov polling suggested that people voted Lab to get the tories out, or because they felt a change was needed rather than supporting Lab policies
  • Perceived competence of opposition
  • 2019 Lab seen as too radical, many previous Lab voters had to vote Cons, Corbyn risk to econ
• Campaign

  • Parties publish manifestos, make active efforts such as through media advertising, TV interviews and debates to win over voters
  • This is the 6 week period is arguably the only time most voters pay attention to politics, seen as highly important in determining the outcome, especially if key events occur during
  • EG. Callaghan ‘crisis, what crisis’ 1979 - out of touch
  • EG. May dementia tax, media backlash - u turn in less than 24 hours
  • EG. Manchester / London bridge terror attacks highlighted Cons cuts to police budgets
  • EG. May failed to take part in debates, boost to Corbyn credentials when Amber Rudd had to fill in - Cons loose maj
  • EG. Corbyn gained significant ground using social media, increased support with young voters - movements such as momentum
  • EG. 2010 Brown was embarrassed with a hostile question on immigration in an unscripted interview, radio mic picked up on him calling a rochdale voter a ‘bigoted woman’
• Campaign importance 2024

  • Rise in support for reform who went from 10% to 14% in polls by end of campaign - particularly important to this was the announcement that Farage would become party leader
  • Cons worst ever electoral performance since 19th century - 2 key events during campaign on which they received backlash
  • EG. Sunak leaving D-day event early
  • EG. Party candidates such as Parliamentary Private sec, had placed bets on July election day before it had been announced, using insider information