Booklet 4: Voting Behaviour and the Media

• Social classes:

  • AB - banker, doctor etc. 22% of population
  • C1 - teacher, social worker. 31% of population
  • C2 - plumber, hairdresser. 21% of population
  • DE - bar staff, call centre worker. 26% of population
• What is assumed each social class would vote for:

  AB - Conservative

  C1 - Conservative / Labour

  C2 - Labour / Conservative

  DE - Labour

  However there’s party dealignment: less than 50% of DE have voted Labour since 1997, apart from 2017 due to Corbyn‘s traditional Labour views.

  There’s been a decline in AB supporting Conservatives since 1997, less than 50%.

  More DE have started voting Conservative particularly due to Brexit. More middle class have started voting Labour over the last 20 years.
• Which classes support which minor parties?

  • Lib Dems = AB, C1
  • Greens = AB, C1, C2
  • SNP = AB, C1, C2, DE
  • UKIP = C2, DE
• Arguments that class does matter in elections:

  • Issues over taxation link to class. E.g. Labour like high taxation and high welfare, Conservatives like low taxation and low welfare
  • Voters still identify with a party. In 2017 59% of DE voted Labour due to Corbyn.
  • Parties still target classes in campaigns. Keir Starmer refers to his pebble-dash terraced upbringing. In 2019 Boris Johnson used Brexit to break the Red Wall in the North.
• Arguments that social class does not matter in elections:

  • Many issues cross over classes such as Government competence on valence issues, education, healthcare, transport, equality of opportunity, environment.
  • Class dealignment since 1970s. Fewer people associate themselves with a class so it loses meaning. And party dealignment. Voters don’t associate themselves with a particular party.
  • Class didn’t matter in the 2019 election. Conservatives got many traditional Labour voters due to Brexit.
• Class didn’t matter in the Brexit referendum

  • 64% of both C2 and DE voted leave.
  • 57% of AB and 51% of C1 voted remain.
  • The working class were more likely to vote Brexit.
  • Middle class were more likely to vote remain.

  Other factors which determined the Brexit vote:

  • income
  • housing
  • the papers
  • views on immigration
  • education
• How does gender affect voting behaviour?

  • In the 1983 election 46% of women voted Conservatives because they were seen as the ‘party for housewives‘.
  • In both the 2001 and 2017 election 42% of women voted Labour because both Blair and Corbyn campaigned for welfare and the NHS which are important for women due to maternal care.

  However gender mostly doesn’t make a difference. In 2015 Labour made a ‘woman to woman’ pink minibus which visited 75 constituencies to encourage women to vote Labour, it was considered sexist and only 33% of women voted Labour so it didn’t have a positive impact.
• How does age influence voting behaviour?

  • Young people vote Labour. In 2017 67% 18-24s vote Labour.
  • Old people vote Tory. In 2017 59% of 65+ vote Conservative

  Why:

  • Young people care about environmental issues
  • Brexit
  • Young people are progressive
  • Tories focus on old people’s issues, Labour on young people’s
  • The Gig Economy (0 hour contracts)
  • equality and social justice
• How does region affect voting behaviour?

  • The North tends to vote Labour, The Red Wall
  • The south tends to vote Conservatives
  • The Midlands tend to vote Conservative
  • London tends to vote Labour
  • Scotland tends to vote SNP
  • Wales tends to vote Labour

  However, in the 2019 election the Red Wall broke when Labour lost 59 seats in the north. 3 Red Wall constituencies that went Tory were Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Bolsover.

  The Conservatives won with more than half the vote. The North became deviant voters
• How does ethnicity affect voting behaviour?

  • Minority groups tend to vote Labour because they’re less anti-immigration and help lower classes.
  • More BME are generally lower class (BME= black, Asian and minority ethnic).
  • In 2017 19% BME voted Tory, while 73% BME voted Labour.
  • All parties legally cannot be openly racist, sexist, homophobic
  • Immigration and race have become interlinked
• 2017 election results by region

  • north were 37% Tory, 53% Labour
  • south were 54% Tory, 29% Labour
  • London was 33% Tory, 55% Labour
• What affects turnout in elections?

  • If there are issues and people want change
  • the economy
  • the likelihood of change
  • location (rural places don’t have as many voting booths)
  • safe seats or not
  • opinion on the government
  • the time of year of the election (many people are on holiday in summer so lower turnout)
• Why was there high turnout in 2017?

  • Brexit
  • young people voted more because 18-50s voted remain in Brexit so they wanted a party who could stop Brexit
  • Corbyn
  • Whatsapp messages from Labour, social media
  • Maybot factor, Teresa May said there wouldn’t be an election but then she called one

  Why was turnout in 2001 and 2005 particularly low?

  The Blair factor- he got elected and it appeared that he’d be in government for ages so no one bothered to vote
• Turnout by age:

  • In 2015 43% of 18-24s voted while 78% of 65+ voted.

  However the youth vote is increasing, in2005 37% of 18-24s voted while in 2017 54% voted (could be due to Corbyn).

  • Older people have higher turnout because they have time, desire to protect their interests, campaigns aimed at them, pride for their country.
  • Young people vote less because not many policies affect them, disillusionment, apathy, unlikely to have voter ID, less politically aware, use different methods to engage in politics eg social media, E-petitions
• Turnout by class

  • In 2015 75% of AB voted, while 57% of DE voted
  • Higher class means higher turnout
  • DE are often young people
  • AB have more money and resources, more time to vote
  • AB C1 have more policies which affect them eg taxes
  • DE feel that government don’t care for them, disillusionment
  • Many of DE participate politically in other ways like protests and petitions
  • Labour need to appeal more to C1, C2, DE
• How valence explains voting behaviour

  Valence = which party will run the country the most effectively

  • Competence- economy, foreign policy, third party issues (too specific eg greens on the environment), unity, leaders, NHS, education, environmentalism, immigration
  • Will the party stick to their promises
  • Scandals, honesty/ integrity, trust
  • The party’s records, people get bored if s party has been leading for years.
• Governing competency


  Johnson said get Brexit done, Corbyn said renegotiate it
• Image of leadership

  Johnson had charisma, jolly, seen as harmless. Corbyn was seen as grouchy, anti-semitic, communist, dangerous
• Public voted Johnson 40% negative, and Corbyn 58% negative
• Party Unity


  Johnson united the Tories on Brexit by withdrawing the whip of 21 remain MPs
• In 2019 growth dropped to 0.2%
• Unemployment was at the lowest level in 20 years
• 16% trusted Corbyn with the economy
• 53% thought Corbyn would overspend
• 67% thought they'd need to pay more taxes under Corbyn
• Economic Competence was a key issue in the 2019 election
• 2019 election valence issues

  • Governing competency- Johnson said get Brexit done, Corbyn said renegotiate it
  • Image of leadership - Johnson 40% negative, and Corbyn 58% negative. Johnson had charisma, jolly, seen as harmless. Corbyn was seen as grouchy, anti-semitic, communist, dangerous
  • Party Unity -Johnson united the Tories on Brexit by withdrawing the whip of 21 remain MPs
  • Economic Competency- 67% thought they'd need to pay more taxes under Corbyn, 53% thought, 16% trusted Corbyn with the economy, In 2019 growth dropped to 0.2%
• Rational choice and issue voting affecting voting behaviour:

  • Prioritises logic
  • people will vote in their best interests
  • may be over a wide range of policies or based on a single issue.

  Important issues in the 2019 election: Brexit, health, crime
• How party leadership affects voting behaviour:

  • strong party qualities - determination, integrity, patriotic, charismatic, following through, innovative.
  • case studies to suggest party leadership is key: Thatcher 1989 her personality facilitated her win, Nick Clegg 2010 came across well on TV gained Lib Dem’s a coalition.
  • Case studies to suggest party leadership isn’t key-Clement Attlee 1945 didn’t win for his personality but his policies, specifically his creation of the welfare state.
  • December 2023 party leader approval rates: Conservatives 22% (shy Tory factor), Labour 46%.
• How party manifestos and election campaigns affect voting behaviour (mostly have no effect)

  • 1979 campaign ‘Labour isn’t working‘. Unemployment was 4-6%, strikes in the winter of discontent,
  • Labour failed to deal with these problems, James Callaghan lost the vote of no confidence, “better off with the Conservatives”
• How party manifestos and election campaigns affect voting behaviour (mostly no effect)

  • In 2017 Tories were forced to commit to reform healthcare in manifesto but it got nicknamed ‘the dementia tax’.
  • The threshold for free care would go from £23,250 (not including home) to £100,000 (including home). Fears of needing to sell their home, May put a cap on costs after saying she wouldn’t
• Press vs broadcasting regulations:

  • The press has no regulation and newspapers are biased. E.g. The Guardian and The Mirror are left, while The Sun, The Daily Mail and the Daily Express are right
  • Broadcasting refers to all TV stations, they’re bound by law to remain neutral, don’t internationally influence voting.
• How much influence does the press have on voter behaviour?

  • “Labour isn’t working” campaign in 1979 was catchy and highlighted Labour’s inability to deal with unemployment rates.
  • ”If Kinnock wins today, will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights“ The Sun 1992 (put his head in a lightbulb)
  • “The Sun backs Blair” The Sun 1997 because Blair persuaded Murdock using New Labour. Blair won.
• Evidence to suggest the press has little impact:

  • “Don't chuck Britain in the Cor-bin” The Sun 2017
  • ”Apologists for Terror” Daily Mail 2017 (accused 3 Labour MPs of terrorism.
  • There was a 9.5% swing for Labour in 2017 so these had little impact
• How has impartiality of broadcasting been challenged?

  • Dominic Cummings broke lockdown rules by visiting Barnard Castle and Emily Maitis called him out on it on live TV. BBC told her to take it back and she quit.
  • Gary Lineker caused Match of the Day to air without audio because he criticised Suella Braverman’s policies.
  • Richard Sharp resigned from BBC after not declaring that he helped Johnson secure a £800,000 loan
• How powerful is broadcasting in their influence?

  • very
  • still the most used news source, 45%
  • secomd biggest is news websites, 41%
  • social media 21%
  • These stats are according to YouGov October 2023 poll
• Impact of recent television debates on voting behaviour:

  • 2010 Nick Clegg reported to have won the first leaders debate and raised his profile, however Lib Dems only increased vote share by 1% and actually lost seats
  • 2019 Jeremy Corbyn portraying as trustworthy and in-touch but ultimately came across as less likeable and Prime Ministerial. However it didn’t impact thr vote a lot, his confusing stance on Brexit had more of an effect.
• Newspaper influence outside the electoral cycle -

  Cash for Questions 1992-1997:

  October 1994, The Guardian paper said lobbyist Ian Greet had bribed Tory MPs to perform parliamentary tasks for Egyptian owner of Harrods, Mohammed Al-Fayed. It was discovered thst they were paid by Al-Fayed’s employees.
• Newspaper influence outside the electoral cycle-

  Expenses Scandal 2009:

  Two freedom-of-information journalists Jon Vngoe-Thomas and Heather Brooke asked for details of expenses claimed by MPs. A tribunal (court of justice) ordered the information to be released and The Telegraoh reported that £500,000 in repayments were made, 8 MPs were charged.
• Newspaper influence outside of the electoral cycle-

  Windrush Scandal 2017:

  Concerned people who were wrongly detained and threatened with deportation, in at least 83 cases they were wrongly deported from the UK by the Home Office. Hostile emvironment introduced by Home Secretary 2012 Teresa May. In 2018 the Home Affairs committee issued apologies in writing. Now, over £41 million has been paid or offered to the Windrush generation.