Measuring Public Opinion

• Types of Polls

  Benchmark Polls

  • Used by campaigns before declaring candidacy

  Tracking Polls

  • Over a time period to track issues or support for a candidate

  Entrance/Exit Polls

  • Outside polling places on election day to predict election results
• Increase in Approval Rating

  • Good economy
  • Scandal free
  • Crisis handled well
  • War handled well
• Decrease in approval rating

  • Bad economy
  • Sacandals
  • Crisis handled poorly
  • War handled pooorly
• Issues w/ Polling

  • Wording: "Loaded language"
  • Order and phrasing of question
  • Bradley Effect - vpters not honest about who they're voting for
• More issues w/ POLLING

  • Farming - posing questions in such a way that emphasizes a certain perspective
  • Push Polling - Provide negative information about opponent and than take a poll
  • Uninformed about the question - participants in a poll that are uninformed about the polling issues and questions
• Scientific Polling

  • Random Sampling - same chance of being selected
  • Stratified Sampling - Ensure that different demographics are represented
  • Representative Sample - Try to hit the demographics percentages of the actual pop.