Case study of 3 elections

• 1979 - Results and Outcomes

  • initiated 18 years of conservative rule under Thatcher until 1990 and then Major in 1997
  • after Callaghans government vote of no confidence in the HoC
  • Thatchers initial Majority was modest but increased in the next 2 elections
  • 76% turnout, a 43% popular vote, 339 Seats
• 1979 - Policies and Party Manifesto

  both major parties manifestos were noted for their moderation, high priority to bringing down inflation, Thatcher included very little as to her intention to move her party to the right, there was mention to moving nationalised industries to privatised and removing some union powers however there was no mention of the radical scale down of the state sector meaning Callaghans warning of a move to the far right if the tories won had little credibility despite him being right
• 1979 - Election campaign

  Tories adopted modern campaign techniques under two professional publicity specialists, The labour campaign lacked awareness of presentation, whereas thatcher proved amenable creating 'photo opportunities' and Majorly outpaced Labour in the opinion Polls despite 'sunny Jim' Callaghan was consistently 20 points ahead of Thatcher in popularity inspire of his mistakes. Thatcher had turned down a TV debate also which would have further pushed their differences in personality
• 1979 - Wider political context

  a major part to Thatchers success was he weakness of the minority Labour gov. despite Callaghans popularity and tentative signs of economic improvement and the deals with smaller parties lead to the dissolution of parliament meant there was little doubt as to the Tory win. Callaghan also mistimed the election as he was expected to call it in autumn 1978 which in the 'winter of discontent' led to a series of strikes from all national areas which created national paralysis
• 1979 - Wider political context

  Callaghans failure to control the trade unions basically given a 'winning card' as the media showed a discontent strike bound Britain as he was at a leaders meeting in the Caribbean and on his return dismissed questions about the strike with The Sun calling him 'out of touch' with the quote "Crisis? What Crisis?" which handed the conservatives a strong image
• 1979 - Wider political Context

  the election was called after the withdrawal of support for the government by nationalist parties after the results of the referendums on devolution for Scotland and Wales went against the gov. with pushed Callaghan to go to the country at the worst possible time for his party
• 1979 - Voting analysis:

  Class

  • Middle class ABC1 - 59 Conservative, 24 Labour, 15 Liberal/LibDem
  • skilled working class - 41 Conservative, 41 Labour, 15 Liberal/LibDem
  • Semi/Unskilled working class - 34 Conservative, 49 Labour, 13 Liberal/LidDem

  Gender

  • Men - 43 Conservative, 40 Labour, 13 Liberal/LibDem
  • Woman - 47 Conservative, 35 Labour, 15 Liberal/LibDem

  Age

  • 18-24 - 42 Conservative, 41 Labour, 12 Liberal/LibDem
  • 25-34 - 43 Conservative, 38 Labour, 15 Liberal/LibDem
  • Over 65 - No Data
• 1997 - Results and Outcomes

  • Landslide victory of New Labour, removed Majors Tory Government and started 13 year Labour Reign
  • Blair was PM until 2007 when Brown took over
  • Lib Dems emerged as a third force in Westminster
  • Tories struggled with staying relevant in the contemporary society, ongoing division, and poor leadership
  • Turnout - 71%, 179 Majority, 418 Seats, 43% of the popular vote
• Policies and Manifestos

  1997
• Blair's policy of modernisation

  • Abandoned old policies such as nationalisation, tax increases, and strengthening of trade unions which could have put off non-committed middle class voters
• Blair's stance on law and order

  • Gave tough signals on law and order which was a major issue to voters with the rising crime of the 1990s
• Blair's links to the business community

  • Was endorsed by greater parts of the media like The Sun and The Times
• New Labour

  Seen as a moderate party with 'middle England' at its heart
• New Labour's manifesto and policies

  • Specific, such as reducing the number of children in primary school classes
• There was no stark difference between Tories and Labour
• New Labour's emphasis on constitutional reform


  • Gave the party common grounds with the Lib Dems which made it easier for Lib Dem supporters to tactical vote for Labour in areas where Lib Dems could not hope to win
• The tactical voting by Lib Dem supporters ended up making up 30 seats of Labour's majority
• 1997 - Election Campaign

  New labour placed a lot of emphasis on creating a professional 'vote-winning machine' and employed public-relations to handle the media side of the campaign ('Spin Doctor Alasdair Campbell') , also used focus groups to assess public opinion and specifically targeted marginal seats however its percentage increased 12% in the seats it targeted but 13% in the seats it neglected. Despite central control over the campaign the parties lead in the opinion polls declined over the campaign
• Wider political Context

  1997
• Labour couldn't have won as dramatically as they did without the failure of the Tories after their narrow majority won in 1992
• Turnout was also low in 1997 election (71%) meaning under 31% of the voters voting labour which doesn't suggest strong Labour popularity
• Economic policy played a central role in Labours win as the Major government was remembered for the collapse of the economy and 'black Wednesday' in 1992 rather than the steady economic improvement that followed
• There was no evidence of the steady economic improvement as it didn't seep through in tax cuts or more spending meaning the Tories lost their reputation as economic managers
• Tory image was further damaged by a series of 'sleaze' and scandals and continuing division over Europe which gave the impression of weak leadership
• 1997 - Voting Analysis:

  Class

  • ABC1 - Conservative: 39 Labour: 34 Lib Dem: 20
  • C2 - Conservative: 27 Labour: 50 Lib Dem: 16
  • DE - Conservative: 21 Labour: 59 Lib Dem: 13

  Gender

  • Men - Conservative: 31 Labour: 45 Lib Dem: 17
  • Women - Conservative: 32 Labour 44 Lib Dem: 18

  Age

  • 18-24 - Conservative: 27 Labour: 49 Lib Dem: 16
  • 25-34 - Conservative: 28 Labour: 49 Lib Dem: 16
  • Over 65 - Conservative: 36 Labour: 41 Lib Dem: 17
• 2010 - Results and Outcomes

  • Brown was removed from office, ending the New Labour Era
  • Camerons conservatives increased their seats benefitting from 4 years of modernisation under him
  • Tories did not gain an independent majority and formed the first coalition since 1945 with the Lib Dems
  • Coalition survived a full term due to the Fixed Term Parliament Act which the Lib Dems insisted
  • Cameron won a solo majority in 2015

  Results: Turnout - 65%, 77 majority in the coalition, Tories won 36% of the popular vote & Lib Dems won 23%, Tories had 306 seats and Lib Dem had 57
• Party Policies and Manifestos

  2010
• There was little difference between the 3 central parties on the need to reduce the budget deficit which had increased to 163 million in the financial crash
• All 3 parties pledged to save without cutting public spending
• The differences came in the timings and the extent of public cuts
• The Tories were alone in calling for immediate cuts as their rivals argued this would jeopardise the fragile economy
• From 2008 Cameron focused his campaign on the attack of Labour's mismanagement of the economy with the ideas of reckless overspending, and failure to regulate the banks
• This is what gave the Tories considerable traction as in Opinion Polls 59% of voters believed that the extra money spent by Labour was wasted
• The Election Campaign

  2010
• Further evidence of the limited importance of campaigns in determining the final result
• The Tories focused on the marginal seats early in the campaign wanting to get their candidates established at local levels with emphasis on public services but still failed to win a strong majority
• First televised debate featuring the 3 main party leaders

  2010
• Brown came across as very wooden whereas Nick Clegg became increasingly popular in the opinion polls after this but eventually lost 5 seats in the final result
• Gordon Brown had become increasingly unpopular as in an unscripted meeting with a voter he was caught on a radio mic calling her a 'bigoted woman' after she asked a hostile question about immigration
• Labour continued to hold the Rochdale seat and Brown was already behind in the Polls anyway