TSES 4002 exam1

• Forecasting


  Gaining insights into the future, reducing uncertainty, outsmarting competitors, and preparing for upcoming events
• Dominant Western Worldview (DWW)


  Assumes human supremacy, focuses on human ability to shape destiny, sees the world as full of opportunities, and believes in unending progress
• Human Exceptionalism Paradigm (HEP)


  Believes that what makes humans unique comes from our culture, thinks that changes in society are due to culture and technology, sees nature as less important, and believes we can solve problems by making more progress
• New Ecological Paradigm (NEP)


  Sees humans as part of nature, recognizes that we rely on the environment, and emphasizes that there are natural limits we can't ignore
• Tesla


  • Elon Musk has led Tesla to become a major global car manufacturer, aiming to expand worldwide
  • Tesla's technology has faced criticism due to technical issues that have resulted in serious accidents, underscoring the importance of human oversight in using autonomous technologies
  • The reliability of Tesla's technology and its integration into society are questioned, especially after incidents like the fatal accident involving Joshua Brown
  • Tesla is working to ensure its technology is both reliable and meets legal and insurance requirements for its autonomous vehicles
• Bill Joy's perspectives on advanced technologies


  • Worries that advancements in robotics could lead to robots surpassing human capabilities, potentially replacing human roles and challenging our control over such machines
  • Warns of the dangers of microscopic machines that can manipulate matter at the atomic level, including scenarios where these machines self-replicate uncontrollably (the "grey goo" scenario)
  • Points out the risks associated with genetic engineering, such as creating new diseases or disrupting ecosystems through unintended genetic modifications
• Ancient Greek Divination


  Greeks used divination as a tool to manage uncertainty about the future, seeking advice from supernatural sources rather than using risk assessments
• Divination and augury offered a method to address uncertainty and make informed choices in the face of unpredictability
• As new technologies like electric cars become popular, the rules and ethical guidelines need to be updated frequently because they can't keep up with how fast technology changes
• The Long Now Foundation

  • Focuses on getting people to think about the far future instead of just the present
  • The 10,000 Year Clock is a special project they made, which is a giant clock designed to last for 10,000 years. It's meant to make people think about how our actions today will affect the future for a very long time
  • Long Bets is another project where people make predictions about big changes or important events that will happen far in the future. This helps start conversations about important long-term issues
• The CN Tower, originally intended to be a lasting monument, faced potential demolition scenarios linked to commercial development, reflecting short-term economic interests over historical or cultural preservation
• Types of Forecasts


  • Bibliometrics
  • Trend Analysis
  • Expert Opinion/Delphi Method
  • Scenarios
  • Creativity (science fiction)
• Risk Equation


  • Example given of an Impactor strike, with an annual risk cost of $1.85 x 10^7