Voting behaviour

• When analysing markets, a range of assumptions are made about the rationality of economic agents involved in the transactions
• The Wealth of Nations was written

  1776
• Rational


  (in classical economic theory) economic agents are able to consider the outcome of their choices and recognise the net benefits of each one
• Rational agents will select the choice which presents the highest benefits
• Rational agents


  • Consumers
  • Producers
  • Workers
  • Governments
• Consumers act rationally by


  Maximising their utility
• Producers act rationally by


  Selling goods/services in a way that maximises their profits
• Workers act rationally by


  Balancing welfare at work with consideration of both pay and benefits
• Governments act rationally by

  Placing the interests of the people they serve first in order to maximise their welfare
• Groups assumed to act rationally


  • Consumers
  • Producers
  • Workers
  • Governments
• Rationality in classical economic theory is a flawed assumption as people usually don't act rationally
• Marginal utility


  The additional utility (satisfaction) gained from the consumption of an additional product
• If you add up marginal utility for each unit you get total utility
• s is Now helpful to understand the divide in many ways as a large city and some remaining strongholds in the north so especially Liverpool and Manchester for labor versus the majority of rural constituencies and towns for the Tories as the popularity of the conservatives declined with partygate and the cost of living crisis though labor looks likely to win and win back many of the seats the conservatives won in 2019 especially the red rules so you can see um potentially region continues to have a bit more impact than 2019 um suggests that kind of traditional year of region at least
• so class and social status today so obviously we looked at how classes declined um in importance so but how does it have an influence today um ultimately it's of limited importance as a determinant of voting behavior in 2019 42 um in the a b category so that's managerial um voters voter conservative compared to 78 in 1964 showing that declining importance whilst 34 of those in the de category are not semi and unskilled um workers or unemployed um people who are unemployed or pensions a voted labor compared to 64 in 1964
• ultimately in 2019 labor faced a problem of not being associated with protecting the interests of blue collar working classes anymore especially in the context of brexit and globalization in in the context of brexit and the conservative party's support for brexit they were able to win a lot of um working-class voters who had formally voted for labor
• if class is no longer that important um a key social factor that is important now is education so in recent elections and reference especially the brexit referendum education has shown itself to be a key dividing line with those with fewer formal qualifications more likely to support the conservatives and those were the university education more likely to vote for labor and the lib Dems
• in a brexit referendum this was really evident with those without qualifications going 75 um support for brexit or those with a University degree um had 70 so 75 of those supported um remain similar can be seen in 2019 right um where 43 of those with a degree or higher voted for labor um 17 for the lib Dems and just 29 for the conservatives whilst by contrast the conservative party won 58 of the votes among those whose highest level of Education was GCSE or lower
• with age education is probably one of the most important social factors in determining the outcome of Elections or predicting the outcome of Elections on today ethnicity and gender are also important so white voters are more likely to vote for than conservatives whilst black and minority ethnic voters are much more likely to vote for labor
• in 2019 64 of vme Voters voted for labor was just 20 voted for the conservatives um crucially um potentially has a bit less impact though because turnout is a lot lower among vme voters and BME voters form um quite a small part of the population in the UK therefore it's less likely to have a significant impact in determining the result
• in terms of gender women used to be more likely to vote for the conservatives but now the influence of gender is marginal there is however more of a difference among the young in 2017 in the 18 to 24 age group The conservatives won just 15 of women but 28 of men so obviously among young people with conservatives are on the whole unpopular um but they are a bit more popular um with young men
• age and education um I'd probably argue are are very important today um region in in a different way to how it used to be I think is is pretty important as our um as is ethnicity I think is quite a key um predictor of voting behavior um but class is quite a key one which used to be very important um but isn't so much anymore and gender um is continues to not be um too important as a determinant voting behavior
• it's important not to see these as kind of completely causal factors in themselves um as in I'm I don't think um for example I'm a Young Man therefore I'm more likely to vote conservative or um I'm white therefore I'm less likely to vote for labor um different from that is how it interacts with policy and party image um for example so it's kind of older people are more likely to vote for the conservatives not just because um they're older people right um it's because the conservative party um is seen as representing older people and often will offer policies um that benefit older people so it has that interaction um with party image and rational Choice as well
• rational Choice theory is the idea that voters behave like consumers by looking at the available options and evaluating which is the most beneficial to them this is linked to the growth of a more educated electorate especially with the um rise of the internet and the kind of abundance of information online and economics is seen as playing an important role in this and there's even a more rigid Theory known as economic voting which suggests that people simply vote out of self-interest um for the party that will benefit them economically
• the idea that voters are rational and perform cost-benefit analysis is um kind of debatable though and probably shouldn't be taken too far issue-based voting is kind of can be seen as somewhat similar to a rational Choice Theory and that's based on policy um but it's different in suggesting that voters based on which party is closest to them on the policy that they deem is the most important and doesn't necessarily have to be rational even if they're not aligned with the party's other policies
• the 2019 election is a really key example of that um where 74 of leave voters so let's leave voters in the EU referendum voted for the conservatives including many of the red wall who'd never voted for the conservatives before
• valence factors are a number another group of factors which are really important in determining election outcomes so that's kind of leadership and competence and violence issues are um when there isn't significant disagreement between parties and voters and versus therefore between parties sorry and voters therefore choose based on which party um they think is going to be most effective in government
• when valence issues are more significant social factors are likely to be less significant
• the public image of party leads has become more important in recent decades as politics has become increasingly personalized complicated has also talked about the presidentialization um of British politics since the 1979 election and kind of talk about a shift more closer to U.S politics with the suggestion being that UK election campaigns are increasingly shaped by voters perceptions of leading figures as they are in the U.S
• parties appreciate the importance of presenting their leaders in a good light with attention given to photo opportunities that will show their leaders human touch as well as to TV debates um in election campaigns and leaders can be seen as really important in winning over swing voters and unifying the party
• the influence of leaders can be overstated as local MPS partnership events issues and social factors can be seen as more important
• competence um and that's really linked to the performance of the current government um in power so how well have they done um since the last election have They carried out their Manifesto promises have they been effective managers of the economy um and of of the country and folks are really able to pass judgment on their performance in power
• events my dear boy events so it's kind of the idea that events are really highly important in influencing the popularity of a government determining the direction of that government um and therefore their electoral prospects these can be political events such as splits within the parties or wider social and economic development such as the performance of the economy key natural disasters foreign policy issues coverage can be quite a good example of that um we're in the 2019 election it wasn't really expected that um covert would dominate politics for the next three years um however it really did and dominated The public's view of the conservative party and the conservative government in power especially
• campaigns are the six-week period um before an election and that's known as The Campaign and in this period parties publish their manifestos and make active efforts on the ground and in the media to win over voters including by spending significant amounts of money on advertising and appearing in t interviews TV interviews and debates
• many voters only pay attention to politics during these election campaigns so kind of longer term that's kind of CounterPoint the longer term factors um being important some voters only pay attention in the run-up to elections um especially if key events and gaffes um happen during these campaigns they can be seen as really important in changing how people um vote
• on the other hand their importance can be overstated though as many voters will have already made up their mind prior to the election campaign and they don't and many voters don't make voters choices voting choices based on short-term events and potentially make them due to their social factors or make them due to longer term issues and including potentially longer-term balance issues or rational choice or issue voting potentially
• manifestos can be seen as important um as they give a very good indication of the shape of party policy and are highly informative and they're called they can therefore interact with kind of rational Choice um on the other hand Manifesto promises aren't always carried out so they're sometimes not believed by the electorate with the um case of the lib Dems pledge to scrap tuition fees following the 2010 election being a really key example of that
• polling has shown that two-thirds of people don't read manifestos whilst many voters have made up their mind months or years before manifesto's already
• The conservative party used the clever slogan 'labor isn't working' in the 1979 election
• The political context was important in the 1979 election, with the labor government looking weak after nationalist parties withdrew support