Factors influencing

• partisanship

  • strongly identify with that party
  • partisan dealignment in the UK recently
  • Disillusion and apathy explain the loss of party appeal to voters -> disengagement
  • since the 1970s -> other factors have become more important, more votes for third parties
• class based voting

  • A, B, C1, C2, D, E
  • class dealignmoment -> increase in the size of the UK’s middle class, the decline in trade union power, the privatisation of industries and greater educational opportunities
  • 2019 -> For the first time, Conservatives got a majority in every single class - the Conservatives did better among working-class voters

  (48%) than they did among middle-class voters (43%) - Conservatives dramatically increased their share of safe seats in working-class areas from 13 to 31
• class based voting terms

  • instrumental voting -> way people voted was part of their class identity
  • deviant voting -> when you don't expect someone from that class to vote that way
• governing competency

  • perceive the ability of each party to run the country 
  • gov policy, but also competency of the opposition -> e.g. 1997 John Major’s lack of competency. 1979 Callaghan
• age

  • older -> tory (2019 age 39) - protect the material interests of older people -> lower tax, National Defence, law and order, Eurosceptic - older property-owning voters, favour security and stability and having, more financial responsibilities
  • younger -> labour - less likely to vote -> 2017 84% of people over 70 voted but only 57% of people aged 18-19 - 2017 corbyn and youth vote - abolish tuition fees -> 2017 general election 62% of 18- to 24-year-olds voted for Labour whereas 65 plus aged people voted only 25% for Labour and 61% tory
• age and referendum

  AGE

  In the EU referendum- 64% of 18-24 year olds voted to remain, 61% of 65+ voted to leave
• region

  • since 1980s north-south divide with the exception of london
  • SE -> prosperous, home ownership, little unionism, white/ rural -> mark Francois safe seat
  • ethnically diverse areas/ industrial production = labour -> greater Manchester, Wales, Merseyside -> the industrial north
  • because of FPTP LibDem cant do as well -> Celtic/ artisan regions
  • marginal seats -> aim to win
  • region is becoming more important -> Scotland switched from labour to SNP - Torys unpopular that in 1997 they won 0 seats, 2017 SNP won 56/59 seats
  • Brexit = decisive issue -> Mansfield labour since 1922 but turned tory 2017
• gender

  • not decisive factor
• gender

  • not decisive factor
  • 2019 -> 35% women for Lab, 31% men
  • WWII changed behaviours -> 1945-1980s men for Lab - trade unionism, family finances, Torys appeal to housewives and home-makers -> 1959 Macmillian emphasised role of family life -> 1979 Thatcher articulated women's concerns, especially falling Labour inflation of family finance
  • 1979 - 47% women tory, 43% men
  • 1997 -> women favoured Lab with more focus on education and NHS
  • 2017 -> 44% men for torys and 43% women for tories -> minimal gap
  • roles within the family transformed
  • age is more decisive factor
• ethnicity

  • commonwealth immigrants -> labour, welfare state and trade unionism, multiculturalism
  • race relations 1965 and 1976 by labour
  • 1968 Enoch Powell -> rivers of blood speech -> end of commonwealth immigration -> hostility toward conservatives
  • 2017 GE Corbyn sympathetic to immigrants -> lab. winning 49 seats in Greater London -> only 45% are white british
  • 2017 GE minorities voted 73% lab and 19% tory