top down offender profiling

• top down

  • originates with FBI
  • more intuitive application of profiler's prior knowledge to produce profile of most likely offender
  • six main stages by Douglas et al
• 1 - profiling inputs

  • description of crime scene
  • background info on the victim
  • details of the crime itself
  • all info included, possible suspects not considered (may bias info)
• 2 - decision process models

  • data organised into meaningful patterns
  • murder type - eg. serial
  • time factors - when and how long
  • location factors - how many
• 3 - crime assessment

  • organised offender - planned crime, body transported from scene, weapon usually hidden, high intelligence, socially and sexually competent
  • disorganised offender - unplanned crime, random victim, sexual acts on victim likely, scene likely to contain clues (blood, fingerprints)
• 4 - criminal profile

  • profile constructed including hypotheses on living background, habits and beliefs
• 5 - crime assessment pt2

  • written report to investigation agency - matching people evaluated
  • if new evidence - back to step 2
• 6 - apprehension

  • review of profile generating process to ensure legitimate conclusions
• the method is useful

  Copson

  • questioned 184 US police - 82% said it was operationally useful and 90% said they'd use it again
  • may not result in actual identification, but helps by opening new perspective for investigation and preventing wrongful conviction

  therefore, useful
• basis of the method is flawed

  data from which organised/ disorganised classification is from

  • from interviews with 36 dangerous and sexually motivated murderers eg. Ted Bundy
  • these individuals (who are v manipulative) may not be good source of reliable info
  • their approach and rationale may be different to more 'typical' offenders

  approach may not be generalisable
• potential harm caused by using top down approach

  Snook at al

  • argue that profilers are little more than psychic
  • believability explained by Barnum effect - ambiguous descriptions can be made to fit any situation
  • so may mislead investigations
  • ALSO smart offenders may know about profiles and deliberately mislead w clues

  police and courts should take care not to be mislead
• distinguishing between organised and disorganised offender

  Canter et al

  • little basis in reality
  • analysed 39 aspects of serial killings by 100 US serial killers
  • no clear division between organised and disorganised
  • instead no. of subsets of organised and little evidence for disorganised

  may not be best approach