Parties:short term factors affecting voter behaviour

• Manifesto is important


  In 1987, Labour wasn't committed to Trident.

  Cons sed they cudnt be trusted with defense
• Manifesto is important


  Popular policies help swing campaign

  Unpopular/confusing policies undermine campaign
• Manifest is important


  1983 Lab manifesto sed extend nationalisation, boost public spending, increase taxation - wasn't popular with election
• Manifesto is important


  2017 Cons sed elderly getting NHS at home care, if have assets worth £100000, excess amounts contribute to their care after their deaths

  Highly unpopular - labelled dementia tax

  Same election Lab sed abolish tuition fees made them popular among young, increase tax on top 5% which had broader appeal.
• Campaign isn't important


  If people aren't persuaded by manifesto, campaign doesnt matter and will fail
• Campaign isnt important


  1987 Mandelson organised great party campaign for Lab but Cons still won as Thatcher seen as stronger leader

  Leadership + manifesto more important
• Campaign is important


  1992, John Major salvaged Cons campaign by talking to soapbox to appeal directly to voters
• Campaign is important


  2017 Corbyn campaigned in more traditional sense by taking Lab case to the people

  Lab won election
• Governing competence and economic voting is important


  Voters judge how well party manage UK economy and how well its done in past
• Governing Competence

  Voters base decisions in voting on how competent govt been as well as potential competence of opposition govt
• Governing competence and economic voting are important


  Governing competence and economic voting powerful influenceson voting behaviour
• Governing competence and economic voting is important


  Elections decided by performance of the govt esp economic

  Not decided cuz of opposition being good alternative
• Economic voting


  Which party manages economy well
• Governing competence nd economic voting is important


  1979 skilled workers voted Cons for first time after Lab incompetence es during 1970 Winter of Discontent

  PM Callaghan sed "what crisis" to reassure public but backfired

  People voted Thatcher to confront growing power of trade unions
• Governing competence and economic voting

  1983 Thatcher bought down inflation + leadership during Faulklands war reinforced govt's reputation for strength of purpose
• Governing competence nd economic activity is important


  Voters stayed wit Labour 1997-2010.

  Faith weakened by financial crisis + recession

  Shows importance of economic activity as after 2008 people didnt trust Lab after they let debt pile

  Cons image of financial responsibility led to Lab defeats in 2010, 2015 due to economic activity
• Party leadership is important


  Among smaller parties, 2015 SNP Sturgeon and UKIP Farage made good impression on TV
• Party leadership isn't important


  When Callaghan led Thatcher by 20% in popularity polls he still didnt win 1979 election
• Party leadership isn't important


  2010, Lib Dem Nick Clegg most popular out of all party leaders

  But party share of vote fell by 1%

  Lost 5 parliamentary seats
• Party leadership is important


  2010, 2015 + in devolved assemblies election, no doubt party fortunes influenced by performance and image of party leader
• Party leadership isn't important


  2015, Cameron much more positive image than Milliband

  Helped win election

  Due to media image than leadership skills
• Party leadership isn't important


  Blair positive image in 1997 which helped him win 2 more elections

  By 2007 image tarnished so replaced by Gordon Brown
• Party leadership is important


  Brown suffered poor media image due to reputation of indeciseveness

  Led to Labour defeat in 2010
• Party leadership skills


  record in office

  decisiveness

  honesty

  sincerity

  clear vision

  communication skills
• Party leadership important


  Leadership skills made May poll rating in 2016 be high
• Party leadership is important

  2016, Corbyn image damaged but still elected 2x 2015, 2016

  2017 May standing fell and Corbyns rose

  Corbyn had a better campaign
• Party leadership is important

  Only in an extremely close run race does personality and qualities of leader matter
• Party leadership is important

  Party leadership do swing elections