5. Electoral Process and Direct Democracy

• Key Terms


  Primaries and Caucuses:

  • the methods used to select candidates for elected office.
  • Most prominent are the presidential primaries and caucuses, but they are also used to choose candidates for congress.
  • Primaries involve a formal secret vote, while caucuses are more informal party gatherings that select delegates who in tun choose the candidate
• Key Terms 


  National Nominating Conventions:

  • held by each party in the summer of the presidential election year to formally elect their presidential candidate
  • In recent times, these are more a 'coronation' and media opportunity
• Key Terms 


  Direct Democracy

  • comprises ballot initiatives, recall elections and referendums.
  • Note that different states have different arrangements and there is no provision for a nationwide referendum as in the UK
• Key Terms 


  Voting behaviour:

  • Why US citizens vote the way they do
  • Many factors are also applicable to the UK, but in the USA, religion and race are especially significant
• Key Terms 


  Low Turnout:

  • America has considerably lower turnout than other western democracies
  • Though 2020 saw the largest turnout since 1960 with just over 66% of eligible voters participating
• Key Terms 


  Incumbency:

  • high levels of reelection usually enjoyed by existing senators and House members
  • Often a result of gerrymandering and political advantages enjoyed by incumbents due to name recognition and superior fundraising
• Timing of US Election

  The system is majoritarian, explains two party dominance:

  • Presidential elections every four years
  • House of Representatives every two years
  • 1/3 of Senate every two years
  • Congressional elections are known as midterms - can be an indication of how popular/unpopular a president is
  • Presidential elections are indirect, voted in by electoral college
  • Reflecting its federal nature, the organisation of each state elections must comply with federal law, variations over voting ID, absentee votes, primaries and direct democracy
• Electoral College

  • The indirect electoral system used to elect the president every four years
  • Each state is allocated a number of votes and a simple majority is needed to win. Occasionally, as in 2016, the winner may lose the popular vote nationwide but still win the Electoral college vote and become president
• Characteristics of US Presidential and congressional campaigns

  Frequency:

  • often described as involving 'constant campaigning' due to the sheer number and frequency of elections
  • National elections occur every two years by involve not only congressional elections, but those for state governments, and other local offices
• Characteristics of US Presidential and congressional campaigns 


  Focus:

  • US elections are more dominated by personalities, not least because candidates are largely responsible for their own fundraising and policy platform.
  • Much election advertising does not mention party
  • Most politics focuses on local issues and what the candidate promises to benefit the local area, such as federal funds for transportation projects
  • Increasingly focusing on party and national platform for presidential elections - focuses on getting their supporters out to vote
• Characteristics of US Presidential and congressional campaigns 


  Format:

  Campaigns involve extensive use of both old and new media:

  • The Three TV debates between the presidential candidates remain central features of the campaign, although may be less influential as voters are more partisan
  • Campaigns promote a candidate's character and positives; opponents attack characters via attack ads.
  • US elections are very expensive, Last minute events called October surprises, can also prove important in determining the outcome
• Candidate Selection and Nomination:

  Primaries:

  • A secret ballot to select each party's candidate. Now used in the vast majority of states, including the biggest and most urbanised
  • Categories: Open, Closed, non partisan/jungle
  • Key examples: New Hampshire, South Carolina, Alabama, New York, California
• Candidate Selection and Nomination

  Primaries:

  • Advantages: Allows ordinary voters to choose their candidate, enables outsider candidates or those with little political experience, preferable to decisions being made by party bosses, Tests Candidates.
  • Drawbacks: Adds to the overall cost and length of campaigns, focuses on candidates character, 2020 Primaries produced two White males aged over 70 as the winners, hardly an endorsement for diversity, Open primaries can encourage voters to opt for the weakest, Jungle primaries can result in two candidates from the same party being selected
• Candidate Selection and Nomination

  Caucuses

  • Informal series of party meetings which ultimately select delegates for the national nominating convention
  • Voting is open, not secret, can last several hours
  • Used in a decreasing minority of states, mainly more rural
  • Examples: Iowa - first caucus of the season
• Candidate Selection and Nomination

  Caucuses:

  • Advantages: Enables more thorough discussion and debate among party activists of candidates' strengths and weaknesses, No opportunity for 'raiding' as in primaries
  • Disadvantages: Length and timing often discourage many voters from participating, especially blue collar, housebound, childcare. No secret ballot; attracts mainly strong party activists, 2020 Iowa democrat caucus suffered many problems including IT failures that delayed reporting for days
• Candidate Selection and Nomination

  National Nomination Conventions:

  • Held by each party after primary/caucuses in the summer, before the presidential election.
  • They formally nominate the party's candidate, more a coronation.
  • characterised as as celebration: balloons, party hats
  • Important in terms of media coverage and presenting a united front
  • Often held in swing states, elevates candidates and in theory could be the decider if there is no clear winner from primaries.
• Debate over the Electoral College

  Workings:

  • It is used only to elect the president
  • it is an indirect form of election based on 538 voters selected by each state
  • number of Electoral college votes is calculated by the size of each state's congressional delegation
  • Nearly all states use 'winner takes all' of the ECV for that state
  • Maine and Nebraska split their votes, a simple majority of 270 is needed for victory
• Arguments against the Electoral College:

  • Winner of the popular vote can fail to be elected (2000, 2016)
  • Smaller states are over represented, Wyoming has one electoral vote per 195,000
  • Drawn up by founding fathers in a very different era politically, where direct elections were viewed with suspicion
  • Draws focus on swing states, depresses turnout in safe states
  • Majority of Americans want change, discriminates against independents
• Arguments for the Electoral College:

  • Normally reflects the popular vote
  • reflects federal nature of the USA and ensures candidates campaign in a range of states
  • No superior method has gained support, popular votes would lead to a focus on urban areas
  • Faithless electors are not that influential, can be fixed with legislation
  • It produces a clear winner - the presidency cannot be shared out
• Faithless Electors:

  • Individual members of the Electoral College who do not vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged.
  • It usually takes the form of a protest vote.
  • Some states e.g. Colorado have introduced laws that require those chosen as electors to cast their vote
• Factors that affect the outcome of US elections

  Money:

  • higher spending candidates have a greater chance of winning elections
  • incumbents traditionally outspend challengers. In the 2020 Senate elections, incumbents raised $28.6m
  • money is spent on a whole range of campaigning activity, including private polls and social media.
  • Money is no guarantee of success, Clinton spent more in 2016 but lost
  • A lot of the money spent on advertising is attack ads
• Factors that affect the outcome of US elections

  Media:

  • closely tied in with money, candidates desire positive and frequent media coverage
  • Traditionally, the three TV debates were seen as important - less true when there are fewer truly independent voters
  • Media raises profile and name recognition of candidates. This might have been important in 2008 with little known Obama
  • Media focus on the two main parties and their candidates and this is often cited as a reason why indpedents fair badly
  • Broadcast is informally politically aligned, candidates spend a lot in social media
• Factors that affect the outcome of US elections

  Issues:

  • Despite strong pre-existing partisanship, issues and policies shape the votes of many Americans, above all independent or undecided voters
  • Issues encompass a mixture of past achievements and future policy pledges
  • different issues dominate at different times
  • key issues in 2020 included pandemic and racial justice
  • Candidates are normally keen to prioritise and get media coverage on issues they are strongest
• Factors that affect the outcome of US elections

  Leadership:

  • Play a big role in campaigns and voting outcomes
  • much of this comes down to trust, competency and likeablility
  • Great emphasis is placed on personal integrity and crisis management
  • Qualities may be elusive to find in an individual
  • Leadership is closely tied in to candidate personalities and track records. past indiscretions are highlighted by opponents
• Factors that affect the outcome of US elections

  Significance of incumbency:

  Incumbents have an advantage in all US elections and enjoy high re-election rates. In 2020, 86% of senators and 95% of House members were re-elected.

  • high re-election rates should not be taken as evidence for wider approval of political institutions
  • Since 1945, only four US presidents have failed to be re-elected
  • Incumbents tend to do better since they raise and spend money and have greater recognition
  • House reps can be helped by gerrymandering
• Campaign Finance 


  Why is cost so high:

  • Sheer number and frequency of elections
  • Efforts to restrict campaign expenditure have been ineffective
  • The First Amendment guarantees free speech - to raise funds
  • 2010 Citizens United have weakened laws to restrict spending
  • There is no limit on ads
  • Large numbers of well-funded pressure groups
  • individuals and groups give to a wide range of candidates and to both parties
• Independent expenditure

  • Money raised for election campaigns that is not raised or controlled by the candidates themselves. In theory, there must be no co-ordination between these funds, 'soft money' and 'hard money' raised by the candidates
• Hard money 


  Money raised and donate to official campaigns. TV ads produced by the candidate themselves are accompanied by an endorsement VoiceOver stating the candidate aprroves the ad.

  • Hard money is subjects to limits on the size and frequency of donations
• Soft Money 


  Money raised and spent independently of the candidates official campaign, but which supports their candidacy, or more frequently is spent attacking their opponents. It is not subjects to limits regarding how much is raised and spent
• Should Campaign finance be reformed?

  YES:

  • election expenditure has got out of control
  • emphasis on fundraising distracts elected representatives
  • The cost of elections means only the wealthy can afford it
  • Supreme Court decisions have added to the problem
  • reforms may plug loopholes of those with vested interests
  • Matching funding has all but died out
• Should Campaign finance be reformed?

  NO:

  • In fact, allowing for inflation, 2016 saw slightly less spent than in 2008 and 2012
  • Candidates still need to listen to a wide range of their voters and often call 'town hall' meetings
  • Fundraising and donations are a crucial part of the democratic process
  • Supreme Court has upheld First Amendment rights
  • Whatever reforms are passed, the wealthy will always find loopholes
• Direct Democracy 


  Three main types: ballot initiatives, recall elections and referendums

  • ballot initiatives are the most significant used
  • USA only has direct democracy at state level
  • Laws concerning direct democracy vary from state to state
  • Adds to the cost of elections, enhances political participation, system is popular but popularity is decreasing
• Direct Democracy 


  Referendums:

  • Referendums are measure drawn up by state legislatures and put to the people to accept or reject. They are a means of vetoing state laws.
  • Some Staes require certain measures, to be approved by both the state legislature and a popular vote
  • Some states have a mechanism called a popular referendum where recently passed controversial state
  • a 2020 example was in California, to replace cash bail with a risk assessment
• Direct Democracy 


  Initiatives

  • measures are initiated by voters
  • In 2020, 43 initiatives were voted on
  • Although state-based, frequently initiatives in one state are copied in others e.g. marijuana
  • promote the trialling of laws in one state and then spreading
  • 2020 examples included an initiative in Arizona to increase federal income tax on top earners and use revenue to increase funding in schools
• Direct Democracy


  Recall elections

  • allow state-level officials, such as the governor, to face a public vote
  • A recall election often involves a large number of signatures to be collected
  • Vast majority of recall petitions concern low-level state officials such as mayors and legislators
  • 231 recall attempts in 2020, 49 secured enough to go to vote, 29 officials lost the election
• Direct Democracy 


  Helps Democracy:

  • allows voters to have a direct say in framing laws
  • promotes variation in laws between different types of state
  • improves accountability of state-level officials
  • Adds another check and balance to state executives and legislatures between elections
  • increases opportunities for participation
  • pressure groups may get involved
• Direct Democracy 


  Hinders Democracy:

  • 'Tyranny of the majority'
  • Ordinary voters may not always understand complex laws fully
  • Can lead to inconsistencies between states
  • Often a tactic used by sore losers, undermines representative government
  • another opportunity to stalemate
  • Adds to democratic overhead
  • more influence of wealthy pressure groups
• Voting behaviour 


  Primacy Factors:

  • Race
  • Gender
  • Religion
  • Wealth
  • Age
  • Education
  • Geography
  • Sexual Orientation:
• Voting Behaviour 


  Recency Factors:

  • Issues and policies: immigration, cancel culture and the economy
  • Personalities: candidates background and experience
  • October surprises
  • Mood of Nation
• Voting Behaviour 


  Parties:

  • Republicans - white evangelicals, older voters, conservatives, gun owners, rural/small towns, immigration and big government skeptical
  • Democrats - ethnic minorities, youth, blue-collar, supporters of feminism and gun control
  • Parties need to ensure that policies appeal to all sections of their traditional core voters, and that these core voters turn out and vote