deterministic approach

• Deterministic Approach in geohazard assessment


  Focuses on identifying particular situations and outcomes without considering probabilities or uncertainties
• The deterministic approach assumes that specific conditions will always lead to particular results
• Example


  • Every time you press the elevator button, the elevator arrives
• Deterministic assessments


  • Focus on a limited number of scenarios based on historical data, geological evidence, or expert judgment
• Example


  • Assessing landslide risk in a mountainous region based on historical data and geological evidence
• Uncertainties may arise due to limited data availability, incomplete understanding of geological processes, and the potential for future changes in land use or climate conditions
• Deterministic models


  Used to predict the behavior of geohazard events under specific conditions, relying on deterministic relationships and equations to predict outcomes
• Example


  • Using a hydraulic model to simulate flood events in a river basin
• Uncertainties can arise from errors in input data, such as river flow rates, topographic data, and channel geometry, as well as assumptions made about future climate conditions, land use changes, and the effectiveness of flood mitigation measures
• Assumption of Certainty


  Deterministic approaches assume that the input parameters and conditions are known with certainty, leading to precise predictions of hazard occurrence and impacts
• Example


  • Building a strong house to protect against earthquakes, using maps that tell us where earthquakes might happen
• Even though these maps are helpful, there are still things we are uncertain about earthquakes, such as how often big earthquakes will happen or how strong they'll be, and the ground can behave differently in different places
• Deterministic approaches may overlook uncertainties associated with natural variability, future climate change, and human interactions, leading to potentially conservative or incomplete risk assessments
• However, deterministic approach can be used in precise predictions, land use planning, engineering design and infrastructure planning to evaluate the potential impacts of geohazards on structures and developments