probabilistic approach

• Probabilistic approach in geohazard assessment

  Focuses on looking at the likelihood or chance of something happening, considering different possibilities and their probabilities
• Flipping a coin


  • There's a 50% chance of getting heads or tails, and each flip is independent
• Probabilistic approach


  • Acknowledges there's uncertainty and that each outcome has a probability of occurring
• Uncertainty quantification


  Measuring and understanding how much we are unsure about the information and assumptions we use in our assessments
• Estimating time to drive to a friend's house

  • Factors like traffic, road conditions, and unexpected delays create uncertainty around the 30 minute estimate
• Probabilistic distribution


  Tools used to visualize and understand the likelihood of different outcomes, showing the probabilities of occurrence, intensity, and consequences of geohazard events
• Bag with 10 balls: 6 red and 4 blue

  • The probability distribution shows a higher chance of picking a red ball because there are more red balls in the bag
• Scenario based analysis


  Considers various scenarios or possibilities and assesses their likelihood and potential outcomes
• Planning a picnic


  • Considering scenarios like "It might be sunny and perfect" or "It might rain, so we need a backup plan", and thinking about the likelihood of each
• Probabilistic approaches are important for risk management strategies, including hazard mitigation, emergency preparedness, and risk reduction measures
• Probabilistic approaches provide decision-makers with probabilistic forecasts and risk profiles, promoting informed decision-making and resource allocation
• Deterministic Approach


  • Focuses on specific scenarios or conditions without considering probabilities, relies on deterministic relationships and equations for precise predictions, assumes certainty, less flexible in adapting to changing conditions or new information
• Probabilistic Approach


  • Focuses on multiple scenarios and considers uncertainties or likelihoods, uses probability distributions to represent variability and uncertainty, assumes uncertainty, more adaptable to changing conditions and new data