Maths: Time Series Analysis

• Moving Average

  used to smooth the data and to make predictions 
• Cycle Mean


  The average of the raw data in a particular quarter
• Seasonal Component/effect

  A visitor number as a percentage of the cycle mean. 

  • 45/35*100%
  • Actual value/cycle mean * 100%
• Seasonal Index

  The average of the seasonal components for a certain quarter 
• Deseasonalized Data

  to remove the seasonal effect and smooth the data

  • Real data/seasonal index