china

• Overview of China and Climate

  • China’s emissions under current policies are projected to peak by 2025, five years ahead of it’s 2030 target. 
  • The government, however, continues to champion the role of fossil fuels in transitioning to the energy sector, with continued increases in fossil fuel production seen as key to stability and security. 
  • Energy consumption is projected to rise by 9% from now until 2030.
  • The climate change tracker’s overall rating for China’s policies and targets remains ‘highly insufficient’.
• Effectiveness: Five Year Plan

  • In September 2020, President Xi Jingping announced that the UNGA that China will aim for carbon neutrality by 2060. 
  • Energy and climate indicators are included under six overarching economic and social development goals of the 14th five year plan. 
  • Binding ‘green ecology’ targets include a 13.5% reduction in the nation’s energy consumption per GDP, a 18% reduction target for CO2 intensity from 2021 to 2025, and improvement of the forest coverage rate from 23.4% in 2020 to 24.1%.
• Effectiveness: Renewable Energy

  • In 2020, China pledged to reach 1,200 gigawatts of renewable capacity by 2030, more than double its capacity at that time. 
  • Fossil fuels now make up less than half of China’s total installed generation capacity, a dramatic reduction from a decade ago when fossil fuels accounted for two-thirds of it’s power capacity. 
  • In 2022, China installed roughly as much solar capacity as the rest of the world combined. (International Energy Authority)
• • China’s leadership was alert to the negative impacts of being the world’s biggest polluter. 
  • At the same time, China’s own exposure to climate change effects was become a significant topic.
  • The renewables sector is one of the ‘bright spots’ for the Chinese economy, benefiting from a surge in government stimulus in the growth hit from COVID 
• INEFFECTIVENESS: Lack of International Cooperation

  • In 2015, China formally submitted its intended NDC to the Paris Agreement, promising to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and lowering CO2 intensity by 60-65% from 2005 levels. 
  • This was confirmed in the COP26, alongside the goal to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. 
  • Between 2021 and 2023, CO2 emissions grew at an average of 3.8% a year. 
  • According to analysts on the Guardian, China is found to be ‘way off track’, primarily because of the carbon insanity of recent economic growth.
• INEFFECTIVENESS: Renewables

  • China has been clear about the opportunity side of climate change, those less enthusiastic about cutting it’s own emissions.
  • China still generates about 70% of it’s electricity from fossil fuels, as renewable energy lags behind installed capacity. 
  • This is large due to problems with the renewables grid, challenged by what is available in supply versus it’s demand.
• INEFFECTIVENESS: National Interests

  • At COP28, Antinio Gutters urged that countries ‘must break their addiction to fossil fuels’. 
  • China’s climate envoy Zhenhua argues that ‘fossil fuels should serve as a flexible and back up energy source when technologies [for renewables] are not yet fully mature’.