Demographic Transition Model

• What is the demographic transition model (DTM)?

  Model describing population changes over time.
• Describe stage 1 of the DTM


  • No countries are in this stage
  • This stage includes indigenous tribes and rural communities cut off from society
  • High birth and death rate due to a lack of healthcare and education
  • Low population level
• Describe stage 2 of the DTM


  • Includes LICs
  • Declining death rate, high birth rate
  • Healthcare and education are improving, no contraception, lots of polygamy
  • Children are economic advantages, lots of work within primary sector
  • Population increasing
• Describe stage 3 of the DTM


  • NEEs (Brazil Russia India China)
  • Declining birth and death rate
  • Industrial revolution occuring, secondary sector work
  • Access to contraception and education
  • Population increasing
• Describe stage 4 of the DTM


  • HICs e.g. Australia, the UK
  • Lower birth rate, women working
  • Lower death rate, high quality healthcare and education
  • Post industrial revolution - tertiary and quaternary sector work
  • Population constant
• Describe stage 5 of the DTM


  • HICs e.g. Japan, Italy
  • Declining birth rate, high quality healthcare, education and contraception
  • Increasing death rate, aging population
  • Declining population
• What are the advantages of the Demographic Transition Model?

  • Dynamic, showing change through time
  • Helps to explain what has happened and why in that particular sequence
  • Many other countries in Europe and North America went through similar stages as they industrialised
• What are the disadvantages of the Demographic Transition Model?

  • Assumes stage 3 follows several decades after stage 2 and that death rate fell as a consequence of changes brought about by changes in birth rate
  • The original model needed to be adapted to include the fifth stage for countries in West Europe or Japan
  • Some newly industrialised countries e.g. South Korea seemed to go through similar stages but much faster than countries like Britain had
  • Southern Africa has seen a dramatic rise in death rate due to HIV / AIDs and the model does not help to predict what will happen to them
• What is a population pyramid?


  Shows the number of people or percentage of people in each age group for a country, which changes over time, as a country develops.
• What is the dependency ratio?


  The proportion of people aged under 15 and over 65 in a population.