what are the trends transforming the global landscape?

• factors affecting future trends in global landscape


  • poverty decreasing
  • ageing population
  • less young people
  • growth of China's industry
  • growth of Africa, youth population
  • climate change
• in 2007 what % of population were living in urban areas?


  50%
• how did covid shape the global landscape?


  catalyzing economic trends - the need to strengthen

  reinforcing nationalism and polarisation - inward looking

  deepening inequality - people in poverty had it worse, digital poverty

  straining governance - having to respond appropriately
• what does the director of national intelligence do?


  every few years has a 'visioning' exercise called Global Trends
• what does the director of national intelligence identify?


  several global megatrends expected to be the drivers of change in the next 20 years
• megatrends


  • the rich are aging, the poor are not
  • the global economy is shifting, weak economic growth will persist in the near term
  • technology is accelerating progress but causing disconnections
  • ideas and identities are driving a wave of exclusion
  • governing is getting harder
  • the nature of conflict is changing
  • climate change, health and environmental issues will demand attention
• current trends identified by the director of national intelligence


  • renaissance of democracies
  • a world adrift
  • competitive coexistence
  • separate silos
  • tragedy and mobalisation
• what is renaissance of democracies?


  covid focused countries on importance of scientific research, innovation, and technological development. the idea that all countries could work together to face big challenges in the world today
• positives of renaissance of democracies


  • societies become more resistant to disinformation because of greater public awareness and education
  • can mend fractured societies
  • catalyses economic boom, enables states to meet domestic needs and address global challenges
• negatives of renaissance of democracies


  • open societies, Russia and China, failed to keep high-tech talent and investment so can not sustain continuous innovation
  • can stall economic growth
• what is meant by a world adrift?


  a directionless world in which international rules of behavior are no longer followed, global cooperation is limited, and technology fails to provide solutions.
• China's part in a world adrift scenario


  China starts to ignore international rules and elevated risk of armed conflict with other regional powers, over resources. Also developing countries with large youthful populations feel compelled to appease Chinese demands in hopes of investment and aid (Africa)
• negatives of a world adrift scenario


  • weakened rules and cooperation leave the world more vulnerable to hackers, terrorists, and criminal groups
  • large problems such as climate change will fester as there is a lack incentives to solve them
• positives of a world adrift scenario


  • regional powers and nonstate actors have more influence over domains like cyber, space, and other tech
  • the freedom allows some states, companies, and private organisations to discover novel ways to enhance human health and worker productivity, and experiment with new approaches to economic development and governance
• what is competitive coexistence?


  countries prioritising economic growth and restore trading relationships, alongside competition over political influence, governance models, technological dominance, and strategic advantage.
• negatives of competitive coexistence


  • publics may rally against governments during competition, tempering societal fragmentation
  • long-term stability is at risk from growing climate challenges that would be ignored in favor of near-term economic gains
• positives of competitive coexistence


  • strengthening economic interdependence lowers the risk of powers in armed conflict
• how can the central security challenge help keep the US and China coexisting?


  helps keep geopolitical competition without undermining the economic cooperation with which they prosper from
• what is the separate silos scenario?


  The world is fragmented into economic and security blocs centered on the United States, China, the European Union, Russia, and other regional powers.
• negatives of the separate silos scenario


  • financial loss for countries and corporations, markets lost, travel and tourism decline, supply chains fracture
  • unable to attract talent globally or sustain international collaboration
  • collective action to tackle climate change, healthcare, and poverty are dismissed
  • nuclear weapons will increase
• positives of the separate silo scenario

  • the focus on self-sufficiency makes some states more resilient
  • focus on internal security decreases large armed conflict
• what is the tragedy and mobilization scenario?


  following a global food catastrophe caused by climate events and environmental degradation, richer countries shift to help poorer ones manage the crisis.

  through- low carbon economies, aid programes, and transfers of advanced energy technologies
• negatives of the tragedy and mobilization scenario


  • world has to go through catastrophe for change to happen
  • countries reliant on fossil fuel industries are slow to get on board with global revolution, creating global backlash
• positives of the tragedy and mobilization scenario

  • NGOs, multilateral organisations, and activist groups have the ability to influence standards, marshal resources, and hold violator accountable
  • catalyses bottom-up social movement that transforms multilateral cooperation and offers nonstate actors greater influence