Valence voting factors

• Introduction:

  Valence issues are when there is not a significant disagreement between parties and therefore, voters choose based on which party they think will be the most effective in government. Leadership and competence are key to this. This essay will accept the view that valence factors are the most important factors determining voting behaviour in UK elections.
• Paragraph 1 (For)

  • Point: Leadership has become essential in recent UK elections, influencing voters' perceptions of party image.
  • Evidence: 1997 Election – Blair’s “Cool Britannia” image contrasted with Major’s dated public persona.
  • Analysis: The personalization of politics means charismatic leaders attract undecided voters and gain resources like donations. Leaders’ presentation is crucial, as seen in media and debates.
  • AO3: Leadership has “presidentialized” UK elections, underscoring its impact on voter behavior.
• Paragraph 1 (Against)

  • Point: Policy positions (issue voting) can be more influential than leadership.
  • Evidence: 2019 Election – 74% of Leave voters chose the Tories, while 50% of Remain voters picked Labour.
  • Analysis: With a more informed electorate, rational choice theory holds as voters select parties closest to their views on key issues.
  • AO3: Issue-based voting is significant when stark policy differences are present, challenging leadership’s role.
• Paragraph 2 (For)

  • Point: Voter perceptions of a party’s competence shape election outcomes.
  • Evidence: 1979 Election – Labour’s failure to manage economic issues led to its loss, with Tories campaigning on “Labour Isn’t Working.”
  • Analysis: When a party is seen as incompetent, voters tend to vote them out, favoring parties that demonstrate stability and effectiveness.
  • AO3: Competence as a valence factor highlights that voters often judge parties by their perceived ability to govern effectively.
• Paragraph 2 (Against)

  • Point: Campaign events can shift voter preferences more than perceived competence.
  • Evidence: 2017 Election – “Dementia tax” backlash harmed Theresa May’s image, despite her strong initial lead.
  • Analysis: Short-term events during campaigns can dramatically change public perception, affecting voting patterns.
  • AO3: Campaign moments can sway voters, showing that competence alone doesn’t guarantee support.
• Paragraph 3 (For)

  • Point: Social class and demographics are less influential than valence factors today.
  • Evidence: 2019 Election – Conservative support from older voters, with high turnout, benefitted them.
  • Analysis: Shifts in age-based voting indicate demographics still matter, but class-based voting has declined, strengthening valence factors.
  • AO3: Decline of class-based loyalty supports the rise of valence factors like competence in voting behavior.
• Paragraph 3 (Against)

  • Point: Partisan dealignment has made valence factors more prominent.
  • Evidence: 2019 “Red Wall” shift to Conservatives as a response to perceived Labour shortcomings.
  • Analysis: Voters now feel more open to switching parties, focusing on factors like competence and leadership over traditional affiliations.
  • AO3: The decline in long-standing party loyalties boosts the relevance of valence factors in modern UK elections.
• Conclusion

  • Point: Valence factors, such as leadership and competence, have grown in importance as traditional social allegiances fade.
  • Evidence: Elections with limited policy differences (e.g., 2010, 2015) highlight valence’s role.
  • Judgment: With reduced class loyalty, voters prioritize valence factors, particularly when leaders must demonstrate eligibility and stability.