China's Belt and Road Initiative

• China has a long-term and widely publicized economic and political plan to expand its sphere of influence. This is the Brick and Road Initiative, sometimes called the 'New Silk Road' or 'One Belt One Road'.
• The BRI is costly - $4-8 trillion - and a timeline extending to 2049.
• The BRI consists of huge infrastructure corridors to reduce China's resilience on shipping goods by sea through the narrow Strait of Malacca choke point and at the same time expand China's markets and connections to other countries.
• Overland silk road: rail links from Western China to Germany, a corridor of economic development through Mongolia to Russia, an economic development corridor from China through Central Asia to Turkey, economic corridors south through Indochina and Pakistan, to the coast.
• Maritime silk road: ports, sea routes and infrastructure development around the Indian Ocean.
• Polar silk road: the opening of the North Sea Route through the Artic Ocean to Europe
• BRI consists of road, rail and pipeline construction in East Africa.
• A successful BRI would generate huge wealth, for some more than others, in previously isolated parts of South and Central Asia, but it also has major geopolitical implications.
• Geopolitical implications:

  • Strengthens ties between China and Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor/CPEC, but this in turn makes India nervous.
  • Strengthens China's influence in Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore, Sri Lanka and Turkey - which troubles the Americans.
  • Makes China a player in the Arctic, with Russia as a key ally
  • Tying China more closely with Iran, a long-term adversary of the USA.
• Arguments that this is a neo-colonial challenge:

  • Infrastructure investments ensure China can export raw materials as cheaply and efficiently as possible
  • Skilled and technical jobs are often filled by Chinese migrant workers, estimated to number 200,000 in 2018
  • Cheap Chinese imports (clothes, shoes, etc) have undercut local producers and forced them out of business
  • Much FDI brings only temporary construction jobs and there are few long-term jobs in mechanised mines and oil fields
  • Aid from China tied to FDI: allow investment and China provides some aid
• Arguments that this is a development opportunity:

  • China invested heavily in roads, railways and ports to export raw materials - infrastructure that can be used by Africans themselves
  • Vital jobs are created, especially by large industrial, transport and energy projects which also modernise Africa's economy
  • Chinese factories and mines bring modern working practices and technology to Africa
  • Chinese finance has funded 17 major HEP projects since 2000, adding 6780 MW of electricity to continent by 2013
  • Investment deals often accompanied by aid so benefits of Chinese money are more widely spread