What are the key differences between short-run and long-run economic growth?
Short-run: Increase in real GDP, driven by AD/AS changes
Long-run: Sustained increase in productive capacity, driven by technological progress, capital accumulation, labor growth, and institutional improvements
Expansion: When real GDP grows, unemployment falls, and confidence increases.
Peak: The economy reaches its highest point. Growth slows, and inflationary pressures increase.
Recession: GDP falls, unemployment rises, and economic activity contracts.
Trough: The economy stabilizes at its lowest point, before recovering with expansion.
Output Gaps
Positive Output Gap: Occurs when real GDP is above potential GDP, leading to inflationary pressures as demand exceeds supply.
Negative Output Gap: Occurs when real GDP is below potential GDP, indicating underutilization of resources, particularly labor, leading to higher unemployment.
Causes of Changes in the Economic Cycle
Global Shocks: External factors, such as oil price hikes or global recessions, can trigger economic downturns.
Domestic Shocks: Fiscal or monetary policies, like changes in government spending or interest rates, affect the cycle.
Confidence Shocks: A sudden change in consumer or business confidence can alter the cycle, causing a rapid decline in spending or investment.
Key Measures of Unemployment in the UK
Claimant Count: Number of people receiving unemployment benefits (Jobseeker’s Allowance).
Labour Force Survey (LFS): Broader measure of unemployment, including those actively seeking work but not claiming benefits.