2.9C Climate change and coastal flood risk

• High confidence risk:

  • Sea level will rise by 18-59 cm by 2100
  • pace and extent of sea level within the predicted range is uncertain due to population growth, economic development
  • affected from adaption from this such as new sea walls, new artificial islands and storm surge barriers
• medium confidence risk of flooding:

  • Wind and waves
  • Some evidence of increase wind speeds and large waves
  • Coastal erosion
  • Erosion will generally increase because of the combined effects of changes to weather systems and sea level
• low confidence of flooding:

  • Tropical cyclones
  • The frequency is likely to remain unchanged, but there could be more larger storms
  • Predicted to increase in strength by 2-11% by 2100. Associated rainfall will increase by 20%.
  • Storm surges
  • These are linked to depressions that are likely to become more common