valence factors are the most important factors

• Introduction + Judgement

  • Valence issues refer to areas where there is broad consensus among parties, and voters choose based whose most competent or effective in delivering on these issues.
  • In recent decades, valence factors such as leadership and perceived competence have become increasingly important in determining voting behaviour, particularly as class and partisan alignments have declined.
  • This essay will accept the view that valence factors are the most important factors determining voting behaviour in UK elections, as leadership, competence, and party unity
• Argument 1: Party Leadership

  • Point: The public image and charisma of party leaders have become increasingly important in determining voting behaviour, as politics has become more personalised and media-driven.
  • Example:
  • In the 1997 general election, Tony Blair’s youthful and modern image contrasted sharply with John Major’s perceived outdatedness, helping Labour secure a landslide victory.
• Argument 1: Party Leadership

  • Boris Johnson’s charismatic leadership in the 2019 election was a key factor in the Conservative Party’s success, particularly in winning over traditionally Labour “Red Wall” constituencies.
  • Significance: This demonstrates that voters are heavily influenced by the perceived qualities of party leaders, making leadership a crucial valence factor.
• Counter-Argument 1: Issue Voting

  • Significance: This suggests that issue voting can outweigh leadership as a determinant of voting behaviour, particularly when there are stark policy differences between parties.
  • Evaluation: While issue voting is important, leadership remains a key valence factor, especially in elections where policy differences are less pronounced.
• Argument 2: Perceived Competence

  • Point: Voters’ perception of a party’s competence in governing is a crucial valence factor, as they are more likely to support parties they believe can effectively manage the country.
  • Example:
  • In the 1979 election, Labour’s perceived incompetence in managing the economy and trade unions, exemplified by the “Winter of Discontent,” led to their defeat. The Conservatives’ slogan “Labour Isn’t Working” resonated with voters who wanted a more competent government.
• Argument 2: Perceived Competence

  • The Conservative Party’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the furlough scheme, reinforced perceptions of competence, contributing to their success in the 2021 local elections.
  • Significance: This shows that voters prioritise competence when deciding which party to support, making it a key valence factor.
• Counter-Argument 2: Campaign Events

  • Point: Campaign events and short-term factors can significantly influence voting behaviour, often overshadowing perceptions of competence.
  • Example:
  • In the 2017 election, Theresa May’s proposal to reform social care, dubbed the “dementia tax,” caused a significant backlash and damaged the Conservative Party’s campaign.
  • The Labour Party’s manifesto in 2017, which included popular policies such as nationalising railways, helped them gain ground despite concerns about Corbyn’s leadership.
• Argument 3: Social Factors

  • Point: Social factors, such as class and age, have traditionally been important determinants of voting behaviour, but their influence has declined in recent decades.
  • Example:
  • In the 2019 election, age was a key dividing line, with 60% of voters aged 60+ supporting the Conservatives, compared to just 22% of voters aged 18-29.
• Argument 3: Social Factors

  • The decline of class-based voting is evident in the collapse of Labour’s “Red Wall” in 2019, as many working-class voters switched to the Conservatives.
  • Significance: This suggests that while social factors still play a role, their influence has diminished, making valence factors more important.
• Counter-Argument 2: Campaign Events

  • Significance: This demonstrates that campaign events and policy announcements can have a greater impact on voting behaviour than perceptions of competence.
  • Evaluation: While campaign events are important, voters’ overall assessment of a party’s competence remains a key determinant of voting behaviour.
• Counter-Argument 3: Partisan Dealignment

  • Significance: This demonstrates that valence factors have become more important as partisan dealignment has weakened the influence of social factors.
  • Evaluation: While social factors still play a role, their declining importance has made valence factors the primary determinant of voting behaviour.
• Conclusion

  • Summary: In conclusion, valence factors such as leadership, perceived competence, and party unity have become the most important determinants of voting behaviour in UK elections.
  • Final Judgement: While issue voting and social factors still play a role, the decline of partisan alignment and the increasing personalisation of politics have made valence factors the key consideration for voters. Therefore, the view that valence factors are the most important factors determining voting behaviour is largely valid.
• Counter-Argument 3: Partisan Dealignment

  • Point: The decline of partisan alignment has increased the importance of valence factors, as voters are no longer tied to specific parties based on social identity.
  • Example:
  • The rise of swing voters and the decline of traditional party loyalties mean that voters are more likely to base their decisions on leadership and competence rather than social factors.
  • In the 2019 election, many voters in traditionally Labour constituencies switched to the Conservatives, reflecting the growing importance of valence factors over social identity.
• Counter-Argument 1: Issue Voting

  • Point: However, issue voting remains important, as voters often base their decisions on specific policies rather than leadership qualities.
  • Example:
  • In the 2019 election, 74% of Leave voters supported the Conservatives, while 50% of Remain voters backed Labour, reflecting the importance of Brexit as a key issue.
  • Jeremy Corbyn’s promise to abolish university tuition fees in 2017 attracted significant support from younger voters, demonstrating the influence of policy-based voting.