valence factors are the most important factors

• Introduction + Judgement

  • Valence issues refer to areas where there is broad consensus among parties, and voters choose based whose most competent or effective in delivering on these issues.
  • In recent decades, valence factors such as leadership and perceived competence have become increasingly important in determining voting behaviour, particularly as class and partisan alignments have declined.
  • This essay will accept the view that valence factors are the most important factors determining voting behaviour in UK elections, as leadership, competence, and party unity
• Argument 1: The public image and charisma of party leaders -> increasingly influential in shaping voting behavior, as politics has grown more personalised and media-driven.

  • In the 1997 general election, Tony Blair’s youthful -> "Cool Britannia" branding sharply contrasted with John Major’s reputation for being outdated and uninspiring. This helped Labour secure a landslide victory.
  • Boris Johnson’s charismatic and populist leadership was crucial in the Conservative Party’s 2019 victory, especially in flipping Labour’s "Red Wall" constituencies.
  • This highlights how valence factors like leadership qualities shape public perception and sway undecided voters, proving that strong leadership is as important as policy in winning elections.
• Argument 2: Perceived Competence

  • Voters’ perception of a party’s competence in governing is a crucial valence factor, as they are more likely to support parties they believe can effectively manage the country.
  • Example:
  • In the 1979 election, Labour’s perceived incompetence in managing the economy and trade unions, exemplified by the “Winter of Discontent,” led to their defeat. The Conservatives’ slogan “Labour Isn’t Working” resonated with voters who wanted a more competent government.
  • The Conservative Party’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the furlough scheme, reinforced perceptions of competence
• Counter-Argument 2: Campaign Events

  • Point: Campaign events and short-term factors can significantly influence voting behaviour, often overshadowing perceptions of competence.
  • Example:
  • In the 2017 election, Theresa May’s proposal to reform social care, dubbed the “dementia tax,” caused a significant backlash and damaged the Conservative Party’s campaign.
  • The Labour Party’s manifesto in 2017, which included popular policies such as nationalising railways, helped them gain ground despite concerns about Corbyn’s leadership.
• Argument 3: Social Factors

  • Point: Social factors, such as class and age, have traditionally been important determinants of voting behaviour, but their influence has declined in recent decades.
  • Example:
  • In the 2019 election, age was a key dividing line, with 60% of voters aged 60+ supporting the Conservatives, compared to just 22% of voters aged 18-29.
  • The decline of class-based voting is evident in the collapse of Labour’s “Red Wall” in 2019, as many working-class voters switched to the Conservatives.
  • Significance: This suggests that while social factors still play a role, their influence has diminished, making valence factors more important.
• Counter-Argument 3: Partisan Dealignment

  • Point: The decline of partisan alignment has increased the importance of valence factors, as voters are no longer tied to specific parties based on social identity.
  • Example:
  • The rise of swing voters and the decline of traditional party loyalties mean that voters are more likely to base their decisions on leadership and competence rather than social factors.
  • In the 2019 election, many voters in traditionally Labour constituencies switched to the Conservatives, reflecting the growing importance of valence factors over social identity.
• Counter-Argument 1: Issue Voting

  • Point: However, issue voting remains important, as voters often base their decisions on specific policies rather than leadership qualities.
  • Example:
  • In the 2019 election, 74% of Leave voters supported the Conservatives, while 50% of Remain voters backed Labour, reflecting the importance of Brexit as a key issue.
  • Jeremy Corbyn’s promise to abolish university tuition fees in 2017 attracted significant support from younger voters, demonstrating the influence of policy-based voting.
• Arguments

  • Public image of party leaders has become important as its becomes increasingly personalised leading to the presidentatialisation of british politics VS people based there voting policies
  • How competent voters preceived the current government VS Short term issues and events that arise are more influential
  • Electoral often vote for a particlar party irrespective of these factors VS partisan dealignment