CVD Risk Estimation

• CVD Risk Estimation:

  • Risk predication has a central role to play in CVD prevention and is a central component of CVD prevention guidelines in most high income countries
  • Assessment of total cardiovascular risk in individuals should be multifactorial and should not be based on assessing individual risk factors in isolation
  • Total CVD risk is defined as the probability of an individual experiencing a CVD event (e.g. myocardial infarction or stroke) over a given period of time, for example 10 years (WHO, 2007)
• CVD Risk Estimation:

  • Adopting the total risk approach for controlling risk factors has also proven more cost effective than the single risk factor approach (WHO, 2007), which has traditionally been used
  • The risk algorithms are useful in identifying individuals at high risk for developing CVD and the level of absolute multifactorial or total risk should be a guide for clinicians in determining the intensity of the prevention strategy
• CVD Risk Tools:

  • The European Society of Cardiology SCORE (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation) tool is a popular choice in many European countries
  • Risk charts such as SCORE-2 are intended to estimate risk in apparently healthy individuals and are not intended for use among patients with established CVD as these patients are automatically considered high risk and require intensive risk factor management (e.g. diabetes)
  • SCORE predicts the likelihood of CVD events in the next 10 years