factors affecting the outcome of US elections

• what are the key factors affecting the outcome of US elections?

  • incumbency
  • issues such as october surprises
  • media
  • leadership qualities
  • voter profile
  • money
• what is incumbency?

  if a candidate is incumbent it means they already hold the position they are standing for re-election for
• what are the advantages of incumbency?

  • more likely to have higher levels of name recognition
  • boast about past achievements - federal funding or jobs secured
  • boast about political experience and commitment
  • voters are more likely to vote for someone they know
• what are the disadvantages of incumbency?

  • incumbent candidate is often blamed by voters for any political failures while they were in office
  • an incumbent candidate cant really express themselves as a fresh start
• what is an october surprise?


  a news event either deliberately timed by opponents or spontaneously a short time before the polls open in november
• what are televised debates (media)?

  longtsanding feature or presidential campaigns and lots of people judge based on how the candidates look
• political ads (media)

  • directly under the control of the candidates
  • projecting a desired image while attacking the integrity and record of your opponent (attack ads)
• what does social and mainstream media allow candidates to do?

  air their views without much of a filter
• what political party does fox news support?

  republican
• what political party does MSNBC support?

  democrats
• is there more emphasis on the candidate’s personality or political party?

  personality
• what does social media allow politicians to do?

  • create a loyal fan base
  • remain relevant
• desired personal qualities for a president are often

  conflicting -> principled but also pragmatic
• what is voter profile?

  it combines the characteristics of a voter making the voting disposition of a group more predictable
• does spending more money on campaigns mean you will win the election?

  no -> Trump and Clinton when Clinton outspent Trump but lost
• in campaigns what can money buy?

  professional advice, air time and advertising
• where does campaign funding come from?

  organisations that support the party’s political views
• what are super PACs?

  • political action committee
  • designated as independent expenditure committees and may raise and spend unlimited and unrestricted amounts of money
• what are private doners?

  • individuals who donate money to a candidate’s campaign -> often the very rich
• what are corporate donors?

  financial contributions made by a corporation to a campaign
• how can a candidate fundraise?

  • champagne dinners
  • rallies
  • merchandise
  • fairs
• what are negative votes?

  voting for the other candidate just because they hate the first candidate