The Cold War - D - 1984-95

• Why did the USSR invade Afghanistan?

  • April 1978 – Afghan Communist Party seized power in a military coup d’etat.

  • Islamic groups were alienated and began an armed rebellion, they were known as the mujahideen.

  • When the communist regime was at risk of collapsing, Brezhnev sent in troops to occupy the country, as he was concerned that Islamic fundamentalism would spread across the border into the southern Muslim republics of the USSR.

  • The USA, China, Britain, FRG and other countries all supported the Mujahideen, fewer countries supported the USSR, such as India and the GDR.
• Consequences of Afghanistan:

  • As many as 2000 Soviets dead a year.

  • Conscripts of Soviets to Afghanistan was rushed.

  • Many Soviet troops saw the war as pointless.

  • Lots of Soviet propaganda to try and convince the public that they were building schools and helping the Afghans.
• Impact on the USSR of Afghanistan:

  • Estimated to have spent $50 billion on the war.

  • 15,000 Soviet soldiers killed in official records, but the CIA puts the figure at really being 50,000.

  • One million Soviets fought in the war.

  • Soviet veterans became openly critical of the Soviet leadership.

  • Soviet army was viewed as an undefeated defender of communism, but its performance in the war shattered the illusion of its invincibility.

  • Defence spending was increased, diverting money away from basic consumer goods
• US Involvement:

  • Carter and Reagan were both opposed to the Soviet actions in Afghanistan.

  • The CIA funded Operation Cyclone from 1979 to arm and train mujahideen fighters in Afghanistan.

  • They sent advisers to train Afghan rebels in Pakistan, which received millions of dollars of aid and defence equipment in return.

  • They supplied Stinger missiles in 1986, which meant that the USSR no longer had air superiority over the rebels.
• Soviet Economy:

  • Soviet national income growth was less that 4% by 1985, it had been at about 6% since 1928, although Soviet official statistics said it was much higher at this time.

  • Between 1975 and 1985, the GDP per capita across the Soviet bloc and USSR increased until 1980, then decreased until 1985.

  • Purchasing power in hours by an average industrial worker in East Berlin was significantly higher than in West Berlin.

  • These issues presented the USSR and Soviet bloc’s economic regime in a negative way, especially when compared to the West’s regime in the FRG.
• USSR economic problems:

  • There was a concentration on heavy industry at the expense of consumer goods.

  • They needed to support communist regimes across the world, e.g Cuba and Vietnam both were receiving $1 billion a year by 1980.

  • State monopoly on business ensured very little innovations and foreign investment.

  • State decided what would be produced rather than consumer demand.

  • Wages didn’t keep pace with inflation.
• USSR social problems:

  • Alcoholism was a common feature of Soviet life and also led to low productivity and absenteeism.

  • Due to lack of high wages, workers were discontent and there was a lack of productivity, as there was no incentive for the workforce to do more than the bare minimum.
• USSR agriculture:

  • USSR had 75% more farmland than the USA and produced about two-thirds of the US crop of major grains.

  • There was a lack of modernisation, low fertilisation, poor transport and a labour-intensive farming system.

  • Soviets had 8 time as many farm workers as the USA.

  • The state dictated what could be grown and controlled investment and resources, so there was little incentive for farmers.

  • USSR often had to import millions of tonnes of grain to meet shortages.
• Eastern Bloc economic problems:

  • The USSR had stripped the countries it had liberated of goods and materials using reparations.

  • USSR, Czechs, East Germany focus on heavy industry, the remaining countries – Bulgaria, Hungary etc supply the raw materials and light industrial products.

  • Lack of investment, scarce raw materials and high energy costs restricted growth and there was a lack of technical innovation.

  • Factories were outdated, and production was labour-intensive and inefficient compared to the West.

  • East had to buy advanced equipment from the West, causing money shortages.
• Eastern Bloc agriculture:

  • Followed the Soviet model of collectivisation after 1945.
  • Food prices were subsidised to ensure everyone had a similar standard of living
  • By mid 1960s, food production in Czechoslovakia, East Germany and Hungary was lower than in 1938.
  • As the 1980s began, it was clear that most Eastern bloc countries could not feed themselves and the Soviet-style collective farms had failed.
• Eastern Bloc social problems:

  • Lower living standard compared to the West.

  • Concentration of defence and heavy industry left little resource for producing consumer goods.

  • Poor pay, rationing and shortages of even the most basic foodstuffs.

  • Standard of accommodation was often poor, with apartments lacking bathrooms and kitchens.

  • Most satellite states had hard-currency stores where Western goods were sold, but for most ordinary workers these luxuries were out of reach, and a reminder of what communism failed to provide.
• Glasnost:

  • Policy of openness

  • Allowed people to watch films and read books that had previously been censored.

  • Required reality about people’s living standards.

  • Commitment to being open about the state of the Soviet economy.

  • 27th Party Congress linked democratisation to glasnost.

  • Liberalisation of the media – allowed criticism of the party and developed new ideas.

  • Dissidents released from prison.

  • People were allowed to listen to and read foreign news.

  • Admitted to inadequacies in healthcare, education and the poverty of the rural population.
• Perestroika:

  • Stage 1 – rationalisation – 1985–89: initial economic reforms to stimulate economic modernisation, higher rates of economic growth and higher levels of production.

  • Stage 2 – reform – 1987-March 1990: reforms to introduce marker forces into the economy, political reforms to build support for greater economic change.

  • Stage 3 – transformation – March 1990-August 1991: Abandoned the fundamental aspects of the system - single part rule, the command economy.

  • Gorbachev’s reforms consistently failed to increase economic growth and the economy actually began to shrink.
• Chernobyl:

  • Explosion of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor in April 1986

  • Initially, local officials tried to cover up the scale of the catastrophe and it was not reported to central government for two days. Soviet media were slow to report the accident and initial reports played down the seriousness of what had happened.

  • The government continued to conceal the cause of the disaster and the final report blamed the operators of the power station instead of acknowledging the fundamental problems with the design of Soviet nuclear power stations.
• Sinatra Doctrine:

  • Gorbachev rejected the Brezhnev doctrine in August 1989, renouncing the Soviet right to intervene in the affairs of other socialist countries.

  • He argued that different countries could all follow their own path to Communism.

  • This was nicknamed the Sinatra Doctrine, after the single ‘My Way’ by Frank Sinatra and it allowed much greater freedom in the Eastern European countries.
• Able Archer:

  • On November 7, 1983, as Soviet intelligence services were attempting to detect the early signs of a nuclear attack, NATO began to simulate one.

  • The exercise, codenamed Able Archer, involved numerous NATO allies and simulated NATO's Command, Control, and Communications procedures during a nuclear war.
• Geneva Summit, 1985:

  • Gorbachev proposed a 50% cut in the total number of US and Soviet nuclear weapons if the US would stop developing the SDI.

  • Reagan refused and no agreement was reached.

  • Reagan hated everything the Soviets stood for, but he liked Gorbachev and the other Soviet representatives he met.
• Reykjavik Summit, 1986:

  • Gorbachev proposed to eliminate all nuclear weapons by the year 2000 if the USA would stop developing the SDI.

  • Reagan refused to give up the SDI and no agreement was reached.
• Washington/INF Treaty, 1987:

  • The Deadlock between the two powers was broken at this summit.

  • INF Treaty – Intermediate Nuclear Forces agreement – was signed leading to the scrapping of all intermediate-range ballistic missiles.

  • It was the first time that the superpowers had agreed to arms reduction rather than arms control.
• Malta Summit, 1989:

  • Between Gorbachev and Bush, who established a good working relationship.

  • No new agreements made but both leaders declared that the Cold War was over.
• Reasons for Arms Reduction in the Soviet Union 1:

  • Spending less money on arms will lead to more money being available to rebuild the economy.

  • Gorbachev was a very different leader – he was younger and wasn’t from the military. He wanted a new policy towards the Soviet Union – glasnost and perestroika.

  • Chernobyl disaster – one of the largest nuclear disasters in world history. This frightened Gorbachev as it showed what can happen with a civil nuclear accident, so if there was a nuclear war it would be much worse.
• Reasons for arms reduction in the Soviet Union 2:

  • Development in US arms was concerning – Ground Launched cruise missiles (GLCMs), SS-20s and Perschings, which were intermediate range ballistic missiles which essentially removed MAD, as the opponent wouldn’t have a chance to react.

  • General approach to Soviet Union foreign policy – advance communism and defence –Vietnam, Sub-Saharan Africa (Angola + Mozambique), Cuba.
• Reasons for arms reduction in the Soviet Union 3:

  • Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI) – Reagan’s idea to destroy opponent missiles by shooting them down with lasers in space. Concerned the USSR as they couldn’t afford to create a similar initiative or match the US weapon for weapon because they were focussed on economic recovery. They also don’t have the technology to be able to create any systems like this.

  • Gorbachev wanted to normalise relations with the West so that they could get out of the war in Afghanistan as the Soviets were spending $8bn a year on it and they lost 15000 lives.
• Reasons for arms reduction in the USA:

  • The US military cost a lot.

  • The US saw that the USSR was actually wiling to work towards agreements, and they began to carry out their side of the deal, they reduced their weapons and withdrew troops.

  • Reagan had a good working relationship with Gorbachev.

  • The USA were allowed to keep the SDI and they got rid of fewer nuclear weapons that the Soviets.
• Reasons for the collapse of the Soviet state:

  • Economic stagnation within Poland led to frustration and anger, and the rise of Solidarity.

  • Mass protests in 1989 in Leipzig, Sofia, Prague and Timisoara.

  • Gorbachev’s reforms in the USSR, and his lack of intervention when the reform process took a life of its own. His acceptance of the peaceful disintegration of the communist bloc.

  • There is a history of Soviet leader’s reluctance to become militarily involved due to the expenses and impacts of USSR.

  • Gorbachev believed states should be able to choose their own path.
• Collapse of the USSR - East Germany:

  • People started taking a stand against their leaders due to frustration over the struggling economy.

  • GDR leaders faced a challenger when Hungary opened its borders with Austria and 150,000 East Germans used those borders to get to the FRG.

  • Travel to the West was permitted on 9th November 1989, but it was announced a day early and the government failed to announce that the visas needed weren’t available until the next day, so thousands began to make their way to the West.

  • Eventually, East and West were reunited
• Collapse of the USSR - Romania:

  • Economic hardship and blatant corruption caused significant opposition to emerge against the government of Nicolau Ceausescu.

  • Revolts against the regime broke out in Timisoara and spread to Bucharest.

  • Once it became clear that the army had sided with the people against the state’s secret police, Ceausescu fled the capital. He was eventually arrested and him and his wife were executed on 25th December.
• Collapse of the USSR - Poland:

  • Inflation of up to 200% in 1988 led to a series of strikes that forced the government to legalise Solidarity and enter into negotiations with the Solidarity leaders and the Catholic Church.

  • 7 April 1989: Round Table Agreements signed by all 3 groups, with Solidarity recognised as a political party.

  • The new constitution was created, Solidarity could compete for 35% of the seats in the lower house, 65% reserved for communists.

  • Solidarity won lots of seats, it was decided that Solidarity would form a government and the communists would hold a minority
• Collapse of the USSR - Hungary - 1:

  • By 1987, criticism of the economy and the government was growing. Living standards had declined and the country’s debts were the highest in Eastern Europe.

  • May 1988 – the Hungarian Socialist Workers’ Party replaced the Prime Minister with Karoly Grosz, a committed reformer.

  • February 1989 – the party accepted that Hungary needed to become a multi-party democracy to avoid revolution. Gorbachev welcomed the developments in Hungary but emphasised that the position of socialism in Hungary shouldn’t be threatened.
• Collapse of USSR - Hungary - 2:

  • Following Poland, the country held ‘roundtable’ talks and agreed that free elections would be held in 1990, with party leaders convinced that the party would emerge as the dominant force in the new parliament and safeguard socialism in Hungary.

  • In the elections, the Hungarian Socialist Party (the party had attempted to transform itself into a Western-style socialist party) won less that 11% of the vote.

  • It returned in 1996 in alliance with the Free Democrats and it had transformed to a left-wing social Democratic Party.
• Collapse of the USSR - Czechoslovakia - 1:

  • 1989 - opposition was limited to small groups, such as Charter 77 led by Havel.

  • Due to changes in Poland and Hungary, opposition strengthened and the prime minister announced economic reforms, however there were no political reforms.

  • After the Berlin Wall was opened, a demonstration was called to honour the death of a student killed in the German occupation in WW2 which turned into a mass protest and triggered the Velvet Revolution.

  • 19th November – 12 opposition groups formed the ‘Civic Forum’ which demanded political change.
• Collapse of the USSR - Czechoslovakia - 2:

  • 7th December the PM (Adamec) resigned, and a new government was formed in which the communists were a minority.

  • 29th December – Havel was elected as president and him and the Civic Forum persuaded the USSR to withdraw its troops.

  • Once it became clear that German would reunite, Czechoslovakia, Poland and Hungary pressed for the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact.

  • In 1992, Czechoslovakia broke into Slovakia and the Czech Republic.
• East Germany - Events of 1989:

  • Hungary opened its border with Austria. This allowed East Germans access to the West.

  • 30000 used this route in 2 weeks. More camped out at the embassies in East countries for exit visas.

  • GDR no longer had control of their population. GDR let the 5500 citizens camped outside leave for the FRG, as long as the trains went through the GDR, enabling the GDR to expel them rather than they leave.

  • This was shown on FRG television, so everyone could see what was happening. When the police went on board to confiscate documents, most of them had been ripped up.
• Protests and Honecker’s Dismissal:

  • Protests took place in Germany. People would gather at St Nicholas Church in Leipzig, with regular crowds of 70000 appearing.

  • 8th October - shoot-to-kill order issued. This failed as soldiers didn’t want to shoot as protests were peaceful. Gorbachev said USSR troops would not help. A violent regime could not claim legitimacy, despite Honecker’s support of the Chinese regime.

  • He was 77, had been ill for a long time with a tumour which would eventually kill him. Was told he‘d lost the support of the Party and should resign in October 1989.
• Krenz:

  • Leipzig protests continued, 30000 called for the resignation of new leader, Egon Krenz.

  • Krenz tried to reform the government by replacing some of the old SED leaders, but this showed how ineffective the SED was.

  • Offered to liberalise foreign travel, limiting it to 30 days travel allowance each year to stop emigration.

  • The protests grew, with about 75000 demonstrators.

  • Krenz offered the reopening of the border with Czechoslovakia and thousands began to travel there, however the Czech authorities threatened to close the border as they didn’t want to build refugee camps.
• The opening of the Berlin Wall:

  • 9th November – officials drafted a proposal that East German citizens should be allowed to travel abroad if they had the required passports/visas.

  • A draft of this was read out, however it suggested that this would happen with immediate effect, there was no mention of passports and visas.

  • The news spread, thousands began to press on the Berlin Wall.

  • The border guard officer ordered the gates open as a crowd protection measure.

  • The border was then re closed until the mayors of East and West Berlin declared it redundant.
• Obstacles to Reunification - Military:

  • There was the risk that Germany might become too powerful. France, Britain and the USA didn’t want another strong power, Mitterrand (France) and Thatcher were very concerned.

  • How much access to weapons should it have and how many weapons should it have?

  • There was concern about borders of Germany, especially with Poland, as this had been a border that had changed in 1943.

  • USSR had created a buffer zone over a long period of time, and they were losing it, and they were more concerned.
• Obstacles to Reunification - Economic:

  • Large disparity between East and West

  • Which economic ideology should the country follow?

  • Different currencies – the Ostmark was removed.

  • They had different industrial models – the Eastern industry was far less developed than the West.

  • West German salaries were higher, East German workers earned less than a third of what West Germans earned.
• Obstacles to Reunification - Social:

  • Large social inequalities between East and West.

  • Housing standard in East German was very poor.

  • Living standards were significantly worse in East Germany.

  • East Germans had to learn how to live in a capitalist environment, where jobs weren’t guaranteed, things that had previously been provided by the state now cost money.
• Why didn’t East Germany survive?

  • 600,000 East Germans left by the end of 1990, so East German economy struggled, and West Germany couldn’t meet the needs of the newcomers.

  • November 1989 - Helmut Kohl, West German chancellor, proposed massive economic aid, an end to SED control, free elections and eventual reunification of East and West.

  • Modrow, leading reformer in the SED, replaced Krenz. He promised free elections and further economic reform. However, the attractions of West Germany were too great.

  • Economic problems worsened due to emigration, strikes and a growing black market.