voting behaviour spev

• Traditional determinants such as class and social status can lead to class dealignment. This was prominent in the 70s.

  1970s - labour associated with blue-collar and trade union movement and Conservatives associated themselves with middle-upper class (white collar)
• class voting was strongly influenced by self interest, with each party defined by protecting and representing different classes - this is not clear cut
• class dealignment has occurred, where class began to lose its importance. Thatcher won 3 consecutive elections by attracting significant working class through her manifesto. Blair was 3 consecutive elections by attracting significant middle class. This was influenced by society and economy changing with increasing affluence declining importance of traditional blue collar industries and less pronounced differences between classes as parties change their policies to seem more appealing.
• partisanship is a strong attachment to parties which can be seen as part of voter identities. Theses are influenced by family tradition, class and the workplace.
• Partisan dealignment is seen during 70s and 80s. Due to more swing voters who are a lot more comfortable voting for any party. Labour "red wall" turned to Tory "blue wall" in 2019.
• Partisanship remains prominent in constituencies like East Ham were 2017 - 83.2% and Liverpool - a very strong labour stronghold seat. However in the 21st century there has been significant electorates are also apathetic leading to a decrease in voting turnout.
• social factors consist of age, regions, social status, education, ethnicity and gender.
• age and its significance

  • 2017 - yougov called it the new dividing line in British politics.
  • Old voters vote for conservatives as it benefits them whereas young vote for labour and more radical parties. 2019 conservative only 22% 18-29 year olds and 60% for over 60s.
  • Turnout among the 65+ age group in 2017 was around 25% points higher than among 18-24 year olds.
• Regions and its signifcance

  • Traditionally labour heartland was north - Tory was south east
  • 1997 Blair was able to pick up many middle class seats from tories including south east
  • 2010 SNP shattered labour dominance
  • 2019 Red wall to blue wall , 20,000+ voters flipped. This may be lost soon as Tory lose popularity since party gate and labour looks likely to win their seats back.
• Social status and its significance

  • Class is of limited importance past 1997
  • 2019 - 42% in AB voted conservative compared to 78% in 1964
  • 2019 - 34% in DE voted labour compared to 64% in 1964 - This is because labour faced the problem of not being associated with protecting the interests of the blue collar during Brexit.
• Education and its significance

  • Less qualification means likely to support tory
  • Degree + is likely to support labour or Liberal democrats
  • EU referendum - 75% voted for with no qualification of education and 75% against with qualifications
  • 2019 - 43% voted labour (with degree), 17% for LD, 29% in tory.
  • Cons won 2019 election won 58% of the votes , among those highest level of education was GCSE of lower (YouGov)
• Ethnicity and its significance

  • White votes for tory and BME vote for labour
  • 2019 - 64% of BME vote for labour, 20% vote for conservative.

  Dismissal: Turnout is lower among BME
• Gender and its significance

  Women used to be more likely to vote for cons, but now influence on Gender is marginal

  • 2019 - 18-24 year old - Only 15% women and 28% were men.
• Long term issues are Issue based and rational choice, valence issues (leadership and competence)
• Rational choice and issue based voting is when voters behave like consumers and evaluation options which is the most beneficial for them.

  • Linked to a more educated electorate
  • Economic voting theory based solely on self interest that will benefit them economically - which explains why homeowners vote tories and renters vote for labour

  Hoever voters performing analysed on cost and benefit is debatable.
• Issue based voting is base of which party closely aligned with voters most important issue even if they don't agree with the rest of the manifesto.

  • 2019 - 74% of leave voters voted for the tories - including the red wall - 49% remained voters voted labour
• valence factors are based on leadership and competence. Valence issues are when there isn't significant disagreement between parties and voters therefore choose based on which party they think is going to be effective in government.
• leadership and its significance

  Party image of party leaders became more important

  • commentators have talked about the 'presidentialsation' of British politics
  • Parties appreciate the importance in winning over the good photo opportunities
  • However can be scrutinised as local MPs, partisanship, events, issues and social factors can be seen as more important.
• Competence and the significance

  • The performance of the current government is an important factor as voters can pass on judgement on their performance in power. e.g Tories thrown out in 1997 because of 'Black Friday' wrecked reputation of being economically competent.
• wider political and social context factors are based off Campaign, manifesto and the media.
• Campaign and its significance

  • Parties publish manifestos
  • appearing on TV etc...

  On the other hand, their importance can be overstated as many voters have already made up their mind, not on short - term events.
• Manifestos and its significance

  • In the manifestos - sets out their policies
  • Manifesto promises aren't always carried out like Lib Dem Tuition fee scrap in 2010
  • Policies are scrutinised, focused and defended heavily defended which shows a high influence on voting
  • However 2/3 of policing shows voters don't read manifestos whilst many have made up their mind up months or years before manifestos are released..
• The media and its significance

  • The parties try to control their media appearance as much as possible during elections
  • BJ - 2019 - refused to be interviewed by Andrew Neill
  • On the night before 2017 elections - daily mail published a front page with the headline 'Corbin' and attacked Labour - imploring voters not to vote for him.
  • However many aren't swayed by media and have loyalty towards their party.
  • They consume the media and political opinions they already agree with.
• James Callaghan's vote of no confidence
• 76% turnout with 43 and 43.6% to thatcher
• Labour lost 50 seats and tory gained 62
• Lib gained 13.8% and 11 seats
• Key factor - 5% increase limit on pay led to trade union strikes and and election was triggered die to withdrawal of support from nationalist parties.
• Social factors - Tory gaining working class votes (11% of C2 and 9% of DE) - due to thatchers 'Essex man' strategy
• Rational choice and issue voting - Tory manifesto of tax cuts and right to buy
• This being said, Thatcher's policy statement contained very little indication she intended to move her party to far right.
• Campaign - 'Labour isn't working'
• In 1997, the turnout was 71.4%, with Labour receiving 179 seats and 43.2% of the votes, the Lib Dems receiving 16.8% of the votes and 46 seats, and the Conservatives receiving 30.7% of the votes and the worst election result in their history with 125 seats.
• The importance of class in 1997 was declining, with Labour having voters from the middle class and Tory Heartlands.
• Rational choice and issue voting were prevalent in 1997, with Labour promising to reduce waiting times and primary school sizes, and also having a policy on constitutional reform that allowed Lib Dem voters to vote tactically on marginal seats.
• Blair was seen as competent and contrasted with Major, who was perceived as weak.
• Turnout in 1997 was relatively low, with 71.4% of eligible voters voting and under 31% voting Labour, which doesn't suggest a mass popular movement.
• Black Wednesday in 1992 was remembered by voters, and the opinion polls show that Labour was consistently ahead from 1992 onwards.
• Labour won the endorsement of the Times and the sun in 1997, with the headline 'The sun backs blair'.
• 2010 factfile

  • Replaced by coalition
  • Turnout was 65.1% with coalition holding majority - Tory - 36.1% 306 seats, 29% - 258 seats labour and Lib 23% - 57 seats.
  • The campaign and TV debates - Brown was caught off guard by a voter, radio picked up him saying 'bigoted woman'. - wasn't really significant because labour was behind and they still held rochdale.
  • Valence and leadership - Cameron attacked labour's alleged mismanagement of the economy - 59% of voters in opinions polls agree the money went to waste. IPSOS More poll - 29% Brown and 33% Cameron as a capable leader.