Can we feed 9 billion people by 2050?

• Food security

  • the distribution of food is uneven and this affects food security.
  • countries where a high percentage of the population are food insecure often have a food deficit, these tend to be LIDCs as they cant produce or afford to import enough food to meet needs.
  • some countries have a food surplus, these tend to be ACs and some EDCs as they can afford to import food when they do not produce sufficient for the demand, the UK imports 46% of the food supply required by the population.

  
• Factors affecting food security

  • food consumption around the world is increasing due to a population increase as much of this growth has been in LIDCs and EDCs where people are more likely to suffer food insecurity.
  • as countries develop people have money to buy more food.
  • transport of food is easier and cheaper than in the past.
  • sufficient food is produced to feed the world's population.
• Climate

  • extreme temperatures make growing crops challenging.
  • tropical storms lead to flooding which destroys crops.
  • changing patterns of rainfall impact on yield and can lead to drought or floods.
  • drought can lead to desertification and salinisation which affect crop growth.
• Technology

  • LIDC's lack money to invest in machinery, irrigation systems and transport and storage infrastructure.
  • this means their yields are lower then in ACs which are able to invest money in this technology.
• Pests and diseases

  • crops and livestock are vulnerable to pests and diseases.
  • ACs are able to afford pesticides and treatments to reduce the impacts of these on yields.
  • LIDCs are often in tropical areas where pests such as locusts and diseases like African Swine Flu are more prevalent.
• Water stress

  • affects the ability to irrigate crops due to lack of water.
  • LIDCs are more likely to suffer water stress than ACs due to lack of precipitation and poor infrastructure.
  • lack of irrigation and drier areas leads to low yields.
• Conflict

  • during conflicts people abandon or are driven off their land leading to large areas of uncultivated farmland.
  • conflict can destroy or block transport routes meaning that food supplies including imports cannot get to where they are needed.
  • also lead to the destruction of crops and livestock.
• Poverty

  • can mean that people are unable to afford technology like machines, irrigation and quality seeds and livestock.
  • poor diets mean people are unable to work due to ill health.
• Calorie intake

  • to live healthy and active life people require 2,500 calories.
  • in areas like the USA and Europe people consume more calories than needed.
  • in areas like Pakistan, Venezuela and sub-Saharan Africa people consume fewer than needed.

  
• Global Hunger Index

  • four indicators, the higher the score the greater the impact of food shortages and levels of hunger.
  • undernourishment, the percentage of people who don't consume enough calories, linked to 45% of all child deaths.
  • child wasting, the proportion of children that have a low weight in relation to their height, affects 45 million children under the age of 5.
  • child stunting, the proportion of children under 5 who are short for their age.
  • child mortality, the death rate of children under 5.
• Impacts of food security

  • famine.
  • rising food prices, increased demand and reduced supply so the price increases, those in poverty cannot afford a balanced diet meaning LIDCs are most affected.
  • underdevelopment, loss of productivity, if a country's workforce is suffering from food shortage they'll be less productive, development will slow.
  • soil erosion and desertification, farmers over cultivate the land in an attempt to increase the amount of available food.
  • social unrest, food shortage leads to people rioting and looting.
  • migration, from rural to urban where food supply is better.
• Malthus theory

  • proposed in 1798, a pessimistic view on the relationship between population and resources.
  • population growth is increasing at a faster rate than food supply.
  • there'll be a time when there's not enough food to sustain the population, as a result, population growth will stop as a result of Malthusian catastrophe of famine, disease or war, which are known as positive checks as they increase the death rate.
  • preventative checks are factors which decrease the birth rate, these limiting factors maintain the balance between population and resources.

  
• Malthus predictions

  • his predictions were incorrect as they came before the technological developments which have enabled food supply to be increased.
  • Neo-Malthusians today base their views on Malthus' theory.
  • they argue that humans have now used most of the available agricultural land, the amount of fertile land is declining, food prices are increasing and the population continues to increase.
  • they suggest famines are an example of how the theory has proven to be correct but neo-Malthusians argue that population control is essential in avoiding a Malthusian catastrophe.
• Boserup

  • put forward her theory in 1965, an optimistic view of the relationship between population and resources.
  • population growth will stimulate developments in technology to increase food production.
  • more efficient resources will be discovered and used.
  • renewable resources will replace non renewable.