Impacts

• Merapi:

  1. 18,000m high ASH clouds
  2. 1800mm rainfall> lahars
  3. 15,000 m^3 SULFUR DIOXIDE clouds
  4. 15k PYROclastic flow
  5. 4km LAVA bombs
• Iceland:

  1. 8000m high ASH clouds
  2. 200m high LAVA eruption
  3. 150m^3 ice caps melted
  4. 0.15mil ton CO2/day due to vol
  5. -2.8mil ton CO2/day due to flights
• Merapi

  1. 367 Deaths, 400k displaced
  2. 2500 flights shut for 14 days
  3. $274 million loss to airlines per day
  4. $750mil loss to farmers
  5. 867 hectares of forest lost
  6. 70% decline in tourism
• Iceland:

  1. No deaths, 700 evacuated (500 farmers)
  2. 100k flights shut for 6 days
  3. $3 bil loss/ day and 2.5-3% drop in shares for airlines
  4. $2mil loss/day to Kenyan farmers
  5. 20 farms lost, 150m^3 ice melted
  6. decline in tourism then 10% increase
• Merapi reasons/cause of impacts:

  Proximity (VIP10= 5-10mil) vs no major settlements near E15

  Frequency (eruption every 2-3 yrs vs 200 yr ago), predictions (technology) and reactions to forecasts (simple fatalism vs normal)

  Perception of risk (distrust, uncertainty, cost vs value/facts)
• Factors affecting severity in Merapi:

  136 active volcanoes

  VPI10= 5-10 million people or 3/4 pop lives near volcano

  VEI= 4

  Internet users= 10.9%

  but it is an LIDC (low economic development) and people's perception of risk is low so they choose to live next to volcanoes
• Merapi Ability to Cope:

  3km permanent exclusion zone

  regular deaths and eruptions (68 yr life expectancy)

  10.9% internet

  60 observatories set up by CVGHM since 1920s, used tools like EVM and Uni-led researchers

  BPNB sensed precusers of 4 shallow swarms and seismic energy 3x the one for last eruption 4-12 months prior

  210 evacuation centres, stadiums as shelters, trained military for rescue, govt schemes like media call centre and task force for victims

  LIDC so forced to take debts to repay loans e.g. $2mil by USA and $1.5mil from EU

  rebuilt infrastructure using 135m^3 of volcanic material
• 1. Icelands capacity to cope:
  2. No exclusion zone as everyone evacuated immediately and has a higher risk perception so no major settlements nearby
  3. No deaths due to rescue ppl trapped by glacial flow via helicopters
  4. 92% have internet plus early warning systems
  5. Local management and recovery- tourism benefitted businesses and farmers through increased accommodation use and stories/experienced shared by farmers
  6. EU Aviation Crisis Coordination
  7. Evita