voter behaviour

• Long term factors affecting voting behaviour include class, gender, age, ethnicity, region and level of education.
• In 2019, leadership was an issue for both major parties, with neither Johnson nor Corbyn being universally liked or respected.
• Party image, campaigns, media and turnout are other examples of short-term factors that influence voter behaviour.
• Short term factors refer to the idea that we behave like consumers, voting the way that best fits our preferences.
• Voters with few or no long-term party loyalties, who therefore tend to vote differently in different elections, are referred to as ‘floating voters’.
• Class was seen as the key to understanding voting behaviour in the UK until the 1970s.
• In 1967, Peter Puler famously declared that ‘Class is the basis of British party policies; all else is embellishment and detail.’
• The stable two-party system of the era after World War Two was largely a reflection of class alignment, when people associate themselves with a class and firmly believe that they belong to it.
• Partisan alignment is when voters have a very strong, long-term connection with one political party and their support for it is very certain, regardless of who leads it or policy modifications.
• In recent years there has been a rise in both class and partisan dealignment, possibly for reasons such as increased education, changing class system, less clear-cut lines between social classes, and ideological change.
• Class has become a much less important factor in determining voter behaviour.
• By 2005, just 10% of voters claimed to be ‘very strong’ party identifiers.
• In 2017, the Conservatives performed equally well among ABC1 voters and C2DE voters.
• In 2019, the Conservatives outperformed Labour across all social classes, even doing better among C2DE voters than among ABC1 voters.
• Traditionally, the main gender bias in the uk was that women were more likely to vote conservative than men.
• In 1997, Labour was supported by an equal number of women and men.
• In 2015, men were more likely to vote conservative in all age groups under 50, but only by 2%.
• The gender gap in 2019 was small and only among the young.
• There has always been a general tendency for conservative support to increase with age.
• Labour has tended to do better with younger voters, especially after 2015 when jeremy corbyn became leader.
• Black and ethnic minority [bme] voters have usually voted labour, possibly due to the party’s association with a pro-immigrant stance.
• During the 1980s, it became increasingly topical to talk about the UK’s ‘North-South divide’.
• In 2017, there was a swing towards Labour in London and the South (perhaps due to these being Remain areas) as well as a small swing in Wales.
• Historically, Labour MPs have dominated in Scotland. This changed with the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum, which caused the SNP to become the dominant party.
• Rational choice theory suggests that individuals make rational choices and achieve outcomes that are aligned with their own best interests.
• During the 1980's, outside of London, Labour held only a few seats south of a line from the Bristol Channel to the Wash, while Conservative support declined in the north of England as well as Scotland and Wales.
• Issues are not always significant in elections, as in 1992, 2017 and 2019, Labour policies were more popular than the Conservatives’ but the Conservatives prevailed in all three elections nonetheless.
• In 2019, the Conservatives polled consistently well across England and most of Wales, moving into many traditional Labour heartlands.
• Ethnic minority groups often experience lower income levels and higher unemployment compared to white groups, possibly linking ethnic minority support for Labour to social class.
• The importance of leaders was greatly enhanced in 2010 by the introduction of televised debates between the candidates of the three leading parties.
• In 2015, Labour had a lead of 42% among voters with a Black African or Caribbean heritage.
• Having the ‘wrong’ policies can damage a party, as Labour demonstrated in 1983 when its manifesto contained commitments to extend nationalisation, increase taxation and boost public spending, leading to a perceived loss in ‘electability’.
• Successful leaders usually need to demonstrate a number of qualities, including accessibility, trust and strength.
• The Scottish Independence Referendum in 2014 radically realigned politics in Scotland, with the SNP going from 6 seats to 56 between 2010 and 2015, and the party has maintained its dominance since.
• In 2017, Labour had a strong lead among BME (Black and ethnic minority) voters with 77% of BME votes.
• Between 2015 and 2017, increased support for the Conservatives was noted among British Indians, particularly Hindus. The number of Hindus that voted Conservative went up from 30% to 40% over this time period
• Issue voting is linked to the rational choice model of voting, which suggests that, behaving like consumers, we consider our own self-interest and preferences.
• Governing competence is the perceived ability of the governing party in office to manage the affairs of the state well and effectively.
• In an age of class and partisan dealignment, parties place increasing faith in leaders and leadership to win elections.
• Even prior to 1997, the labour party averaged mid-40 seats in Scotland.