invisible primaries

• a period of intense jockeying for money endorsements and stature before the actual presidential contest, called the "money primary"
• Advantage - Endorsements help determine how the frontrunner will last through primaries

  • March 2000, Bush had endorsements from more than half of the party’s elected officials and easily won the nomination
  • 2008, Clinton had more support than Obama but less than half of the party so they were not unified around her
• Advanatage - Allows candidates to build a strong foundation for their campaigns.
• Advantage - Voters get to know the candidates

  • 2008 and 2012 - the presidential fields took part in 20 or more debates each
• Advantage - money not always important

  • Early top fundraisers from each party in 2008 did not win the nomination
  • Clinton the top with $62.7 million, Obama second with $58.6 million
  • Romney the top with $43.4 million, McCain the third with $25.9 million
• Advantage - Provides an early indication of a candidate's viability and support within the party.
• Disadvantage - Not always the frontrunners who win 

  • 2008 Clinton ahead, polling 40% but did not win the nomination, Obama did who was polling 28%
• Disadvantage - candidates judged on few occasions

  • Media sensationalism can make it hard for candidates to make meaningful POSITIVE impact
  • 2007 debate - Hillary Clinton got tripped up on a question about drivers’ licenses for undocumented immigrants, which turned into days of bad press for her.
  • 2011 CNC Debate Rick Perry’s “oops” moment prevented him going toe-to-toe with Romney
• Disadvantage - money important, leading to a focus on fundraising and endorsements over grassroots support

  • Early fundraising leader has won the party nomination
  • 2011 - Romney with $18.3 million 
  • 2003 - Kerry with $12.8 million 
• Disadvantage - can favour candidates with strong connections to party elites, potentially excluding outsiders