primaries and caucuses

• primary

  a competition within each party for who will become the presidential candidate
• Primaries and caucuses occur separately in each of the 50 states, with numerous candidates competing to be the ‘last man standing’ for their party 
• Each state has ‘delegates’ up for grabs in each primary/caucus 

  • 2016 Dem needed 2382 , Rep needed 1237 
  • In 2020, Biden got 51.8% of the vote overall , gaining 2697 delegates 
  • In 2020, Trump won 2549 delegates (incumbent), needed 1276, Weld got 1 delegate 
• Candidates aim to win as many delegates as possible to vote for them at the National Party Convention- they have to pass a certain number to gain nomination
• Registering to vote in the US means you can identify as a Democrat or Republican
• Open primary


  Those who support either can vote in the primary for either party, a Democrat would vote for a poor Republican candidate
• Closed primary


  Can only vote in the primary for that specific party
• Advantage - tests the candidate's ability to raise money
• Advantage - requires the candidate to appeal to a wide range of people

  • Nomination is pluralistic so must need wide appeal and consider a wide range of policy
  • Must appeal to voters in rural states like Iowa, urban states like New York, industrial states like Ohio and liberal and conservative states like California and Texa
• Advantage - large choice of candidates

  • 2016 - Republican primary began with 16 delegates/potential candidates
  • 2008 - Obama mobilised the public opinion to inspire voting for the first ever black President
  • The Tea Party have forced strong candidates like Paul, Perry, Lee and Rubio into contention
• Advantage - gives outsiders a chance to run for election

  • 1992 - Ross Perot
  • 2016 - Donald Trump
• Advantage - transparent system, reducing elitist influence of party bosses

  • Candidates used to be chosen in a private process at the convention
  • 2012 Gringich and 2008 Edwards had money scandals which reduced their popularity and lost them the nomination
• Advantage - increases education and participation in the electorate

  • Participation early in the process - active from January
  • Caucuses a traditional form of civic engagement, encouraging public discussion
  • The grassroots campaigns of Rick Santorum and Ron Paul had a 1st and 3rd place finish, showing Romney’s money could be countered by mobilising people at the ground
  • Open primaries encourage participation from both sides- 2012 many Democrats encouraged by Santorum to participate in th eopen GOP primary in Michigan
• Disadvantage - candidates can perform well at primaries despite being unpopular with many

  • Primary voters tend to be more ideological in their political views, older, wealthier and better educated
• Disadvantage - lagre choice of candidates can lead to party splintering, exposing party divisions

  • 2016 - Rubio, Trump’s major rival, told the public at the Republican National Party Convention to “vote your conscience” rather than “vote Trump”
• Disadantage - elitism - suitable candidates can be dissuaded from running as the process is expensive

  • 2010 Citizens United v FEC ruling relaxed campaign finance rules
• Disadvantage - can become a personal battle

  • 2016 - Trump made personal attacks towards Jeb Bush, calling him an “embarrassment to his family”
• Disadvantage - turnout is often low, especially when an incumbent president is running as only one party has a serious primary contest

  • 2012 - when Obama was running, turnout was only 14.5%
• Disadvantage - Iowa and New Hampshire have an unfair advantage, holding the first primaries since 1976

  • Not representative of the whole nation - very white and rural
  • 2024 - GOP race looking good for Trump as he has won in both states