Elections and Referendums

• Elections serve 3 purposes

  • Political Recruitment - voters choose the individuals they want to represent them
  • Accountability - Representatives are held to account and can be voted out of office
  • Legitimacy - Winners of an election given a mandate to govern
• Majoritarian Systems

  The winner is required to secure a simple majority of one more vote than anyone else or sometimes a majority over all other candidates' votes combined
• Proportional Systems

  Party seats are distributed in proportion to votes cast for each party
• Hybrid Systems

  Combination of majoritarian and proportional systems
• First Past the Post - FPTP

  • Majoritarian system
  • used in elections for house of commons and in local elections in England and Wales
  • One seat per constituency
  • voters cast one vote for candidate of their choice
  • candidate with largest number of votes is elected
• Advantages of FPTP

  • Close tie between MPs and Constituencies
  • Tends to produce a majority for the party that gains the most seats, legislation passes easier
  • Produces more stable governments with little need for coalitions
  • simple and easy to understand
• Disadvantages of FPTP

  • Many seats are safe seats where voters feel their votes are wasted
  • proportion of Mps elected for a party is not proportional to votes cast
  • a government can gain a majority of seats with a minority of votes, in 1997 labour has 2.5x as many seats as the tories but the tories had 1.4x the votes
  • rise of minor parties in 2010s especially the SNP have made it hard for Labour or Conservative to hold a clear majority
  • in 2015 UKIP won just one seat for 3.9 million votes
• Single Transferable Vote -STV

  • Proportional system
  • constituencies are typically 3-5 seats
  • votes number of candidates in order of preference
  • Counting votes is a complex process where candidates are elected once they have recieved a quote of votes
  • votes are re-distributed to others until seats are filled
  • system is currently used in local elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland
• Advantages of STV

  • tends to produce more proportional representation than other systems and allows voters to vote for more than one party
  • no need for tactical voting
  • By ranking candidates, voters feel represented even if their 1st choice doesnt win
• Disadvantages of STV

  • complex to administer
  • The link between representatives and voters is not as close as constituencies are larger
  • Once a candidate reaches the quota extra votes are 'wasted'
  • complex voting process may confuse some voters
• Additional Member System AMS

  • Hybrid System
  • Used to elect members of the Scottish Parliament, Welsh assembly and the Greater London Assembly
  • Voters vote twice - once for a candidate as they would in FPTP and then for a party
  • top up seats are allocated to ensure each party ends up with seats in proportion to the votes recieved
• Advantages of AMS

  • tends to produce legislature where seats held by parties are in proportion to votes cast
  • most elected are still linked to a constituency
  • Smaller parties which fail to get elected can still receive representation via top-up seats
• Disadvantages of AMS

  • Candidates in top-up seats aren't linked to a particular constituency
  • More likelihood of coalition governments
  • increased chance of 'extremist' parties gaining power
• Alternate Vote -AV

  • majoritarian system
  • Not used in UK elections, is used in Parliament
  • AV is a preferential system where voters are asked to rank candidates in order of preference
  • For a candidate to win they must secure 50% or more of the overall votes (having a majority)
• Advantages of Alternate Vote

  • winner has more than 50% support
  • keeps direct link between MPs and Constituencies
  • Allows people to vote for their favorite party without having to resort to tactical voting
  • Stops extremist parties from gaining representation
• Disadvantages of Alternate Vote

  • Still creates un-proportional results as it is based on 1st choices anyway
  • Some voters effectively vote twice, others do
  • ie when no one gains a majority the lowest-performing parties votes are redistributed proportionally to create a majority
• Proportional Representation -PR

  • Opponents of FPTP claim PR would be fairer
  • Proportional system
  • aims to ensure no of candidates elected for a party is in proportion to no of votes cast
  • tends to give smaller parties a better chance
  • ex of UKIP 2014, 3.9 million votes but not localised enough to gain enough seats
  • Formally used in European Parliament elections in UK to elect in multi-member regions where a certain no of votes was needed based on a quota system
• PR Advantages

  • vote share is roughly equal to seat share
  • No wasted votes and no safe seats
  • Smaller parties benefit more from broad support eg Green party, UKIP
• PR disadvantages

  • allows extremist parties to gain representitives
  • No link between representative and constituency
• Alternate Vote Plus - AV+

  • Devised by the 1998 Jenkins Commission as a possible voting system for the UK
  • Hybrid system
  • Works in two parts the 'AV' and the 'Plus' Part
  • First vote (AV) - Voters rank candidates numerically in order of preference (majoritarian)
  • Second Vote (+) - Voters can either select their favourite party or choose their favourite candidate from a closed list (proportional)
  • Important difference is than an additional group of members would be elected through regional party lists to ensure a degree of proportionality
• AV+ Advantages

  • those elected would receive more than 50% of the vote
  • Increases voter choice
  • No need for tactical voting
  • seats more proportional to votes
• AV+ Disadvantages

  • complicated for voters
  • Mixes preference (av) and non preference (closed list)
  • Creates 2 types of representitive
  • could let in extremist parties
• Factors affecting electoral outcomes

  1. Party Leaders

  • personality and image are important for convincing voters
  • Many did not like Thatcher but saw her as a strong leader
  • Leaders with poor public image were not seen as credible, Ed Miliband
  • Mays image collapsed
  • Move towards politicians whose image is based on perceived authenticity
• 1. Party Leader - Tony Blair

  Labours decision to choose Tony Blair as leader in 1994 was very successful.

  • Charismatic and a skilful political orator
  • Changed image and policies of labour party and made them electable again
  • Popularity remained high until Iraq War however he still won the 2005 election, 3 years after the war began
• Influences on Voting Patterns

  The Theories:

  • sociological: voting behaviour is linked to membership of a 'group' eg class
  • Party identification: people have emotional attachment to their parties
  • Issue-voting: voters choose the party they think will most likely benefit them, short term factors are more important
• Factors in voting -long term

  Social Class

  • until 1970s/80s voting patterns were stable and most people were core voters - people who supported the same party consistently
  • Class was most reliable indicator of voting behaviour, working class voted labour and middle classes conservatuves
  • Class dealignment has weakened this, in 2010 only 38% of voters were 'class voters'
  • in 1966 it was 66%
• Factors in voting - long term

  Party loyalty

  • Voters used to have clear identification with a party which has also been in decline in recent years, reflected in declining membership levels
  • in 2005, only 10% of those surveyed have claimed to have a 'very strong' attachment to a particular party
  • in 1966 this was 44%
• Factors in voting - long term

  Gender

  • Traditionally women supported conservatives but this changed with 'New' Labour in the 1990s
  • in 2015 men were more likely to vote conservative amongst under-50s
• Factors in voting - long term

  Age

  • Levels of conservative support increase with age, perhaps due to loyalty but seemingly due to tory policies being aimed at aged persons
  • Labour has more support amongst young people thanks to their more progressive and education-centred policies
• Factors in voting - long term

  Reigon

  • historically labour had much more support in the north due to previously having greater industry and more working class members which Labour initially very much relied on for votes, (Labours close links with trade unions)
  • Conservatives typically dominated the south as thats where more professionals worked, and they tended to be more middle or upper class who the Tories appealed to
• Factors in voting - long term

  Reigon (2)

  • This reigonal voting trend continues however there was the break of the 'red wall' in 2019
  • Scotland has seen a decline in conservative votes since the 80s due to a growing want for independence and continued tactical voting against the tories
• Factors in voting - long term

  Ethnicity and Religion

  • BAME groups more likely to vote labour, 2019 64% of BAME voters voted labour
  • Harsh legislation regarding immigration, such as Rwanda bill, may deter some BAME voters from voting Conservative
  • Conservatives have more support from Anglican voters
• Factors in voting - short term

  Policies

  • can appeal to or turn off the electorate
  • Labours 1983 manifesto is cited as an example of the latter, being dubbed 'the longest suicide note in history' Gerald Kaufman, Labour MP
  • left-wing policies including high personal taxation for the rich and unilateral nuclear disarmament were very unpopular amongst right-wing labour mps and caused divisions in the party
  • Conservatives tried to amend their image in the mid 2000s by revising policy on poverty and public services
• Factors in voting - short term

  Economic performance

  • bad economy = government failure and as such is punished by voters at the polls
  • Labour may have suffered this way by being in government during the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent recession