Hazards - Case Studies

• Haiti Earthquake 2010 - Facts:

  • Poorest country in the western hemisphere
  • Is practically ran by NGOs (money is in Haiti, however it is not going to the people)
  • Endemic of violence and gangs
  • Has government problems (government doesn't effectively exist at times)
• Haiti Earthquake 2010 - Location:

  • Is located in 'Hurricane Alley'
  • Is also located on a 'complex' set of plate boundaries (conservative strike slip faults and destructive plate margins)
• Haiti Earthquake 2010 - Impacts/Causes:

  • 60% of Haiti's capital, Port-Au-Prince, was destroyed
  • Measured as a magnitude 7 earthquake
  • Around 200,000 deaths --> a further 7000 deaths were a result of a cholera endemic
  • 70% of buildings had collapsed
  • Haiti has a poor capacity to cope as there was limited developed infrastructure and health services, furthermore they had not recovered yet from the 2008 hurricanes
• Mount Ontake 2014 eruption - Facts:

  • Is a stratovolcano located 200km west of Tokyo
  • The eruption was a phreatic eruption (steam-driven explosions that occur when water beneath the ground or surface is heated by volcanic activity)
• Mount Ontake 2014 eruption - Impacts/Causes:

  • 57 people died
  • Levels of hydrogen sulphide were dangerously high two days after the main eruption
  • Ash mixed with rainwater and had set, preventing rescue helicopters from landing on the volcano's flank
  • Airspace around the volcano was closed to prevent engine damage
  • Tourists were unable to return due to an enforced exclusion zone
• HIC Case Study - Superstorm Sandy - Facts:

  • Began in the Western Caribbean on October 22nd, 2012
  • Was quickly referred to as a superstorm due to its strength, speed and extent northwards and inland in North America
• HIC Case Study - Superstorm Sandy - Haiti:

  • Haiti had not recovered from prior events
  • As a result of Sandy, they faced a sudden and dramatic food shortage
  • 70 - 80 % of the crops produced were washed away
  • 54 people had died
• HIC Case Study - Superstorm Sandy - USA:

  • The US death toll was 111, with 41 in New York City
  • Sandy had made landfall in New Jersey on October 29th --> Coastal areas experienced storm surges, which rose to 6-7m, causing inland flooding
  • 1 million people were without power
  • Unusual about Sandy --> its effect on inland states
• LIC Case Study - Odisha Cyclone - Facts:

  • Occurred in 1999
  • Was a Category 5 Cyclone
  • 10000 people died, mainly due to storm surges
  • Costed US$4.4 billion in damages
• LIC Case Study - Cyclone Phailin - Facts:

  • Occurred in 2013
  • Was a Category 5 Cyclone
  • 44 people had died --> 21 as a result of the cyclone itself, 23 due to the severe flash flooding
  • Storm surges were up to 3.5 m
• LIC Case Study - Cyclone Phailin - Changes made:

  • Early warning alerts in place 4 days before Phailin struck, allowing for the evacuation of 1.2 million people and the relocation of more than 30,000 animals
  • Decrease in the loss of life due to the formulation of policies pertaining to disaster risk reduction and linking national and local levels to development of early warning systems, preparedness and planning
• LIC Case Study - Cyclone Phailin - Warnings:

  • Constant news coverage before and throughout the event
  • Use of email, fax, telephone and print media to communicate warnings and alerts
  • Distribution of satellite phones to representatives in the 14 most vulnerable districts
• 'Black Saturday' - Australia, 2009 - Facts:

  • 173 people had died as a result of the fires, with 119 people dying in the Kilmore East fire
  • The conditions on February 7th gave rise to particularly destructive bushfires
  • ENSO Cycle --> El Nino, gives rise for warm temperatures and dry conditions
  • Deaths were largely a result of two things: people staying to protect their homes and property and a lack of communication
• 'Black Saturday' - Australia, 2009 - Conditions on February 7th:

  • Very dry fuel
  • Strong surface winds
  • Erratic fire behaviour and the development of convective activity
  • Firebrands, such as burning bark high in the convection column
  • Strong upper winds transported burning bark downwind for many kilometres (fire spotting)
• Local Case Study - River Aire + Leeds - Facts:

  • November and December 2015: Wettest periods in the UK on record
  • 5 inches of rain fell in a 24 hour period, which was 20% more than what was expected for December as a whole
  • Prolonged heavy rainfall was brought due to slow moving, low pressure systems that were driven by a sustained south-westerly airflow
  • Rainfall from the storms in November resulted in saturated soils, which exacerbated the fluvial flooding
  • This all resulted in the 2015 Boxing Day Floods
• Local Case Study - River Aire and Leeds - Causes:

  • Agriculture prioritised getting water off of the land to lower the slope of the flood hydrograph
  • Austerity Policy of the 2010-2015 coalition government meant that the majority of flood projects were postponed
• Local Case Study - River Aire and Leeds - Impacts + Responses:

  • 3355 properties were flooded in Leeds
  • Damages across the Leeds City Centre Region were £ 456 million
  • Movable weirs were implemented at Crown Point and Knostrop
  • New woodland areas were created by planting over 300,000 tree saplings in the Aire Catchment
• Tsunami Engineering - Japan's Great Wall:

  • After the 2011 Tsunami, Japan has expanded and increased its tsunami wall along the eastern coastline to prevent future tsunamis from reaching people and properties along the 400km stretch of the Honshu Coast
  • Has costed about US$15 billion.
  • The barrier is mostly massive concrete tsunami walls up to 15m high
  • Has a huge carbon footprint and cuts people off from the coast
• Volcanic Hazard - Ontake, Japan 2014:

  • Relatively small eruption, but 63 died.
  • No warning as a phreatic eruption, they were killed by pyroclastic flow and hydrogen sulphide gas, high levels of which also hampered rescue efforts.
  • Reason’s “Swiss Cheese” model of hazard prevention - this is a perfect example of the holes: erupted on a Saturday lunchtime; perfect weather for mountain walk; end of summer with a cyclone forecast the following weekend.
  • HIC resources, still couldn’t help.
• Seismic Hazard - Haiti 2010

  • Shallow, 7.0 Mw close to Port-au-Prince. 
  • 210 000 deaths, nearly all from trauma due to building collapse. 
  • Compared to Honshu (Japan, 2011), which had a far bigger earthquake and no deaths from shaking. 
  • Most likely due to: greed, corruption and ignorance had made concrete buildings likely to collapse due to pancaking. 
  • Lack of govt. oversight (not inspecting buildings) through corruption led to the vast majority of deaths.
  • Organisation of clean-up was almost entirely led by NGOs such as the UN, as well as the military of US Govt and other nations. 
• Tsunami Hazard - Honshu, Japan 2011:

  • 17 000 deaths. 
  • [Mw = moment magnitude] Mw 9.1 Largest earthquake to hit Japan in modern times. 
  • All deaths caused by tsunami (not shaking), which breached purpose-built barriers and penetrated far inland.
  • Warnings either ignored or further inland, not given.
• Tropical Cyclone (HIC) - Sandy 2012 [1]:

  • USA Sandy: Damage in the USA was $63 billion.
  • The final death toll was 111 – 41 of these in New York City.
  • High figures for the wealthiest nation in the world
  • Losses = $20 billion only half of which were insured.
  • The "perfect storm" weather conditions (high tide, spring tide at max impact) of Hurricane Sandy resulted in extensive damage to infrastructure and large flood zones.
• Tropical Cyclone (HIC) - Sandy 2012 [2]:

  • The most common cause of death was drowning in the storm surge. 
  • Approximately half of the drowning deaths were in flooded homes located in areas that were under mandatory evacuation orders as of October 28, 2012, the day before Sandy's landfall.
  • Could have been due to fatalism or a lack of education
• Wildfire - Victoria, Australia 2009 [1]:

  • 171 deaths, £2 billion. 4 500 sq km burned. 
  • This was one of Australia’s worst natural disasters. Nine of the 15 fires were started as a direct or indirect result of human activity whilst five were associated with the failure of electricity assets, and the causes of four were thought to be suspicious. 
  • Enhanced ENSO cycles aid wildfires; La Nina delivers rain, El Nino dryness= more dry fuel. 
• Wildfire - Victoria, Australia 2009 [2]:

  • Issues with communications led to a technological fatalism. 
  • Human error led to warnings not being delivered.
  • People not believing their own senses to leave but relied on government warnings, which failed. 
• Local Case Study - Leeds, 2015 [1]:

  • In a 24-hour period 135 mm of rain fell, 20% more than would be expected for the month of December as a whole. 
  • The rain fell on already saturated ground with November and December 2015 being the third and first wettest months respectively for over 100 years. 
• Local Case Study - Leeds, 2015 [2]:

  • Over 4,000 homes and almost 2,000 businesses were flooded with the economic cost to the City Region being over half a billion pounds 
  • Good Swiss Cheese Model- Boxing Day, traffic light or nonexistent on severely flooded main roads.
  • Politics: no prosecution 5 years earlier for draining moorland in catchment area; Govt had also delayed building flood prevention scheme in 2010 as part of austerity.
• Tsunamis [1]:

  • Account for 7% of tectonic disasters but 36% of deaths
  • Have a long wavelength, often more than 100km
  • Have a very long amplitude (around 1m in height)
  • Travel very quickly often at speeds of up to 700kph
  • Rapidly increase in height when reaching land
  • Are often preceded by a localised drop in sea level as water is drawn back and up by the tsunami
  • Most are several waves over a period of many minutes (tsunami wave-train)
  • Flat land = tsunami can penetrate hundreds of metres inland [2011 Japanese Tsunami - some waves reached 10km inland]
• Tsunamis [2]:

  • Are Secondary hazards are caused by a number of several primary hazards: undersea earthquakes; volcanic collapse; landslides; asteroid strikes
  • Cannot be predicted, but earthquakes can be detected and located allowing warnings to be issued
  • Additional data can come from DART buoys located in the oceans, via a satellite
  • Tsunami warning station interprets the data and issues an alert [app based, text alerts + traditional media]
• Tsunami Causes - Earthquakes:

  • The most common cause of major tsunamis is submarine earthquakes occurring beneath the seabed.
  • Not all such earthquakes generate tsunamis.
  • To generate a tsunami, the earthquake must cause a vertical displacement of the seabed.
  • This in turn displaces water upward, which generates a tsunami at the ocean surface.
  • Horizontal displacements of the seabed (strike-slip faults) do not tend to generate tsunami.
• Tsunami Causes - Volcanic Collapse:

  These most commonly involve the eruption, or emergence, of a volcanic island. There are two main mechanisms:

  • Flank collapse: the landslide of one side of volcano into the sea, displacing water. This is often accompanied by a lateral blast.
  • Caldera collapse: where the upper part of a volcano collapses, accompanied by a massive steam eruption as water contacts magma.
• Tsunami - 2018, Sunda Strait:

  • The 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami (Indonesia) involved a volcano.
  • The island of Anak Krakatoa is formed of a volcano that emerged in the sea from Krakatoa’s crater (which famously erupted in 1883) in 1927.
  • There was a flank collapse during the 2018 eruption created a submarine landslide and tsunami 13m high.
  • There were 435 deaths, 14,000 injured and 3000 homes destroyed.
• Tsunamis - Limitations of DART:

  •   Oceans are an extreme environment; the buoys often fail.
  • Japan’s system has an annual maintenance cost of US$20 million.
  • If the tsunami origin is close to land, a warning may be too short.
  • Wave height estimates are not very accurate.
  • The system only saves lives alongside an effective dissemination network, and the provisions of evacuation routes/safe places.
• Tsunami engineering - Japan's Great Wall:

  • Following the 2011 tsunami, Japan has attempted to ‘engineer’ a solution.
  • To prevent tsunami reaching people and property along 400km stretch of Honshu coast it has expanded and increased in size its tsunami wall along the eastern coastline.
  • The cost so far is US$ 15 billion. The barrier is mostly massive concrete tsunami walls, up to 15m high.
  • It effectively cuts people off from the coast, an environmental issue in itself, and one with a huge carbon footprint.
• 2023 - Hurricane Otis, Acapulco: 

  • Went from a storm to a Category 5 hurricane in 1 day due to a rapid speed of deepening
  • In a 21-hour period, the hurricane's maximum sustained winds increased by 105 mph - 2nd fastest in the basin
  • Was poorly forecasted
  • Comparison with Cyclone Phailin: was around 3-4 days notice (ACC reduces warning period)