10: understanding basic probability concepts

• Study of chance

  Probability
• Very fundamental subject that we apply in everyday living

  Probability
• More concerned with how we handle the data using different analysis techniques and collection methods

  Statistics
• Deals with predicting the likelihood of future events

  Probability
• Primarily a theoretical branch of mathematics, which studies the consequences of mathematical definitions

  Probability
• An action through which counts, measurements are responses are obtained. Example: roll a die

  Probability experiment
• The set of all possible outcomes. Example: {1,2,3,4,5,6}

  Sample space
• A subset of the sample space. Example: {die is even}={2,4,6}

  Event
• Is the result of a single trial. Example: {4}

  Outcome
• the probability of an event will occur, given (on the condition) that another event A has occurred

  Conditional probability
• Probability of B given A

  Conditional probability
• How to write conditional probability

  P(B|A)
• Three types of probability

  1. Classical
  2. Empirical or statistical
  3. Subjective or intuition 
• Type of probability that has equally probable outcomes

  Classical
• Actual probability

  Classical
• Based on observations from a probability experiment or historical data

  Empirical or statistical probability
• Based on intuition or educated guess

  Subjective or intuition probability
• Tree diagram is the visual presentation of probabilities
• What type of probability is this? Probability the line will be busy

  Subjective or intuition
• Type of probability: probability blood pressure will decrease after medication

  Empirical or statistical
• An event consisting of only one element

  Simple event
• If it contains more than one element it is what type of event

  Compound event
• An event that does not have any element is called

  Null event
• Other name of null event

  Empty event
• An empty event is said to be

  An impossible event
• Events that do not have common elements are called

  Mutually exclusive events
• True or false: The sample space is not a sure event


  False
• Contingency table is also known as

  Cross tabulation or cross tab
• Type of vent where in event b is not affected by event A

  Independent events
• Event A and b occur in sequence what rule should be used

  Multiplication rule
• A&b both occur in the same trial and use the multiplication rule


  A and b
• Either ache can occur without b, b can occur without a or both A and b can occur. And uses addition rule


  A or b
• What do you call the event that do not or cannot occur in the same trial

  Mutually exclusive events
• If two events can occur in the same trial what are they called

  Non-mutually exclusive events
• Is the probability that one or the other of the two events will occur

  Additional
• How many outcomes are there in binomial distribution

  Two
• What are those two outcomes called

  Success and failure
• What are the characteristics that binomial distribution possesses

  1. Is the experiment consists of n repeated trials
  2. Each trial results in two outcomes, which may be classified as a success or a failure
  3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, remains constant from trial to trial
  4. The repeated trials are independent
• How is failure and success denoted

  q and p
• In binomial distribution consisting of n trials and success probability p what is the formula for the mean

  np