RF Thinking and behaving aggressively

• the 'problem'

  KEN MCCALLUM (2022)

  • putin's illegal invasion of ukraine
  • increasingly assertive chinese communist party, using overt and covert ways to bend other countries to its will
  • instability in iran causes consequences in uk
  • transnational terrorist grps down but not out
  • self-initiated lone terroristts, hard to detect and disrupt. can emerge from any ideology. radicalisation can occur from others or themselves (social media etc)

  hard to find individuals who will act on terrorism, there is a range

  • interest in weird stuff
  • possession of illegal material
  • those who will act
• theoretical background

  • 2016, THOMAS MAIR. murder of Jo Cox. shotgun and stabbing. loner, reclusive. large cache of XRW lit.
  • 2017, DARREN OSBORNE. 1 death, 9 injured. vehicle attack. loner, rapid self radicalisation
  • 2019, USMAN KHAN. 5 stabbed, 2 fatally. released on terrorism charge in 2018. sent to rehab program. fake suicide vest, knives on wrist. shot by police. 28 yo. arrested in 2010 for planning attacks on London stock exchange
  • 2020, SUDDESH AMMAN. 2 stabbed, no death. fake suicide vest. prior arrest for CPI terrorism offences. long history of violence, going back to 14 yo.

  ind interested in extremist ideology as young as 9. far right recruiting younger, vulnerable kids.
• IVP data

  • 90 (49%) uk based islamist terrorist, 20 (11%) animal rights activists, 33 (18%) school shooters, 17 (9%) far right activists, 18 (10%) irish republic army activists, 4 (2%) violent sikh militants
  • 176/182 (96.2%) male
  • 157 linked to offence, 47 involved in death of 1-13, 56 involved in injury of 1-200
  • IVP prediction greater for politically extreme grps than animal rights and school shooters
  • modest but significant findings
• identifying vulnerable ppl guidance (IVP)

  risk screening tool for frontline workers

  thematic analysis of open source info

  intention = identifying ppl who may be engaging in a xmist pathway

  part of PREVENT agenda

  EGAN ET AL. (2016) coded sample of known extremist offenders against IVP items

  arnd 9 in each case

  IVP items gd at predicting non-involvement in harmful events

  helps by excluding a big set of the data
• prioritisation and intervention with violent extremists tool (PIVET)

  SHORTLAND ET AL. (2022) aims to differentiate between violent amd non-violent extremist offenders

  • violent offenders -> high/very high 87.9%
  • non-violent offenders -> low/med 83.3%

  LONG ET AL. (2016) KIRAT - adapted from a previously validated IIOC resource allocation tool. can only go up. low - medium - high - very high
• PIVET with PIRUS database

  profiles of ind radicals in US

  .855 accuracy identifying pp that dont need to worry abt, meaning around 85% of the time
• where next?

  prospective risk

  group

  limits and end user function (prevent or pursue?)
• interrater reliability

  we need to understand how reliably these variables can be coded between researchers