3.4 Transition Can Lead to Stable Population Size and Future

• Frank Notestein; pointed out that a typical pattern of falling death rates and birth rates due to improved living conditions usually accompanies economic development
• Demographic Transition Model; explains connections between population growth and economic development
• Thailand, China, and Colombia; total fertility rate dropped by more than half in 20 years
• Morocco, Jamaica, Peru, and Mexico; fertility rates fall by 30 to 49 percent in a single generation
• Iran; one of the most successful family planning advances in recent years
• Growing Prosperity, urbanization, and social reforms; reduce the need and desire for large families in most countries
• Technology; brings advances to the developing world
• Modern Communications; provide information about the benefits of and methods for social change
• Family Planning; allows couples to determine the number and spacing of their children
• Modern Medicine; gives us many more options for controlling fertility
• Contraception; not only prevents pregnancy, but it also reduces pregnancy-related morbidity and mortality, and reproductive cancers
• Low Projection; suggests that world population might stabilize believing that the world is not growing rapidly
• According to Low Projections the world population might stabilize below what?

  below 8 billion by 2050
• Medium Projection; shows a population of about 9.4 billion in 35 years
• High Projection; shows that the population would reach nearly 12 billion by midcentury
• Successful Family Planning:

  1. Improved Social , educational, and economic status for women
  2. Proved status for children
  3. Acceptance of calculated choice as a valid element in life in general and in fertility in particular
  4. Social Security and political stability that give people the means and the confidence to plan the future
  5. The knowledge, availability, and use of effective and acceptable means of birth control