EQ1

• Superpowers = a country that can project its ideas and power globally and influence other countries using its economic, political, military and cultural strengths
• power and influence of countries vary bc they have a disproportionate amount of global influence

  geopolitical power can be thought about as a hierarchy

  1. hyper power = complete global dominance, no rivals eg USA
  2. superpower = globally dominant, but multiple can exist eg EU
  3. emerging power = globally influential, only in certain things eg BRICs
  4. Regional power = leads on a continental, not global scale eg japan mexico and nigeria
• • the way ppl view the status of a country is subjective, some ppl view USA as a hyperpower not a superpower bc its sooooo powerful
  • EU is difficult to classify into a hierarchy bc all 27 countries are a nuclear weapons power (France) and worlds 2nd largest economy after USA 🦅 BUT bc there’s often disagreements it limits their power 🔋 AS well as the UK leaving the bloc in 2020
  • china is close to the USA in terms of power depsite being an emerging power
• power has lots of diff sources

  • economic = large GDP -> wealth needed to be a global player
  • political = leading not following within global organisations eg the UN, IMF and the WTO
  • military = nuclear weapons, large navy and air force -> threaten or force a countries will on others
  • cultural = media and stuff to influence others which are appealing (soft power)
  • demographic = power = people to support large economy and military
  • natural resources = fossil fuels land for farming etc -> self sufficiency
• types of power

  • hard = military and economic influence (trade deals and sanctions) to force a country to act a certain way
  • soft = political and cultural influence (diplomacy) more subtle way bc they view the persuader as respected and appealing
• joseph nye = in 21st century most successful = combine hard and soft power -> smart power
• whats more effective

  hard = direct action = gets results but is expensive and risky, may be seen as unnecessary or illegal = aggressor may lose allies and moral authority eg Russia 2014 invasion of Crimea
• what’s more effective


  soft power = country has well respected cultures values and politics = enough to persuade some countries but not all

  BUT if applied well its cheaper and is all about creating alliances = friendly and may spread to other countries
• international ranking of soft power put the USA, UK and France and Germany at the top of the annual rankings SOOO BASICALLY western liberal democracies
• importance of type of power has changed over time

  past = hard power = most powerful

  19th/20th century = power comes from controlling most land

  • 1904 british geographer Halford Mackinder produced influential geo strategic location theory = Heartland theory
• heartland theory (basically the area surrounding Russia) = WAS v influential

  • persuaded USA, UK and other HICSs that Russia had to be ‘contained‘ so it wouldn’t take over
  • reinforced idea control of resources = important
• NOW heartland theory = old fashioned

  • modern military tech can reach deep inside a country = size not so important anymore = no protection
  • physical resources traded internationally = less need to produce domestically
  • wars/ conflict are no longer normal ways to gain power
• soft power = more common NOW bc can still gain influence and maintain power by creating economic and political alliances BUT hard power still exists +

  • 1991 and 2003 USA and allies invaded Iraq to secure oil supplies
  • Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine/ Crimea in 2014 to ‘protect’ ethnic Russians
• From 1500-1950 = imperial era

  EU powers conquered land in America, Africa and Asia and built empires that directly controlled territories
• to develop these empires it required

  • powerful navies to transport soldiers and equipment to areas on potential conquest and to protect sea routes and coastlines from enemies
  • large and advanced armed forces to conquer territory and control it
  • businesses to exploit resources in the conquered territories by mining and plantation farming
  • fleet of merchant ships protected by navy to transport goods back home
  • ppl acting as gov and civil service to run the colonies back home
• empires were maintained directly by force

  attempts to rebel against colonial power = brutally suppressed

  Britain = largest empire, peaked in 1920 when it controlled 24% of worlds land in several continents
• empires ended 1950-70

  eu countries bc the cost of maintaining empires = too expensive after eu rebuilt after WW2

  china = basically a colonial ruler to Tibet = brutally suppressing dissent during rebellions by tibetans in 1959 and 2008
• little to no other mechanisms were used other than military to control colonies during the imperial era

  • British india -> english culture was encouraged to wealthier Indians eg schools language cricket and dress
• no superpowers or emerging powers have significant empires EXCEPT

  • Russian controlled parts of Georgia Ukraine and Moldova = mini empire = control has to be indirect
• indirect control

  • political = dominant decision making role in international things eg within the UN, G7, WTO but some countries = disproportionate influence
  • military = threat of large powerful armed forces with global reach, selective arms trading provides weapons to key allies but not enemies
  • economic = trade deals and blocs to create alliances and interdependence
  • cultural = global media to spread ideologies
• indirect power -> important in cold war era

  USA and USSR sought allies among other coutnires as part of the USA led ‘west’ or USSR led ‘east’ inc

  • military alliances eg NATO and Warsaw pact
  • foreign aid -> way to ‘buy’ support from other nations
  • support for corrupt and undemocratic regimes in the developing world in return for their support for the superpower
• can be argued that western nations STILL control their ex colonies thro neo-colonialism incs

  • debt aid relationship = developing countries owe money for past loans to HICs but their poverty also means they depend on foreign aid
  • poor terms of trade = developing countries export low value commodities but have to import expensive manufactured goods from developed countries
  • loss of smart ppl bc they want to migrate to the HICs if possible
• rise of china = emerging power since 2000 -> accused of Neo-colonial actions in Africa

  • challenging hegemony of the USA and former colonial powers
• patterns of power change over time

  • unipolar = one globally dominant superpower/ hyperpower
  • bipolar = two opposing superpowers w/ diff ideologies but equal in status
  • multipolar = man equal powers w/ regional influence but less global influence
• 1800-1919 (British empire) = unipolar

  1919-39 (interwar period) = multipolar

  1990-2030???(USA vs USSR Cold War) = unipolar

  future 2030 = bipolar? multipolar?
• What is the most stable pattern of power

  • unipolar = stable bc there’s only one person at the top but it is hard to maintain this position eg USA called the ‘worlds policeman’ -> inv in numerous trouble spots all the time
  • bipolar eg Cold War sitch = inv tense stand off between opposing powers = high risk ‘scary but stable’
  • between first and second war = multipolar and no dominant power -> power vacuum allowing rise of nazi Germany and imperial japan w/ no country prepared to stop them
• implication for the futures,

  after 2030 the world could be bipolar -> USA and china

  OR

  multipolar -> USA China India eu
• emerging powers = increasingly more important in global politics, and dominance of USA will decline

  most likely to rival USA hegemony = china bc

  • huge Human Resources
  • economy grown massively since 1990 and not slowing down
  • increasingly engages with other parts of the world eg investing in Africa in term of mineral resources and Asia thro its belt and road initiative (BRI)
  • military ambitions to build a blue water navy beyond its coastline
• other bricks countries and G20 countries = significantly more powerful in the future

  EU and USA share of world GDP = in decline

  china n India = Moore significant to global economy and likely to continue
• emerging powers in the near future will

  • demand more say in global organisations eg UN -> India may have a permanent seat on the security council
  • more influence over global financial decision making at WB or IMF or WTO
  • greater role in international peacekeeping missions and disaster response as military grows
• BRICS = 42% of global CO2 emissions sooo basically a global environmental governance agreement to tackle global warming needs to include them

  • at un climate change conference in paris 2015 the bric countries were inv in the agreement unlike the 1997 kyoto protocol only inv developing countries
• emerging countries strengths and weaknesses (most important)

  • countries with ageing populations or declining eg japan russia china = major probs in the future paying for expensive healthcare and pensions at the same time their workforce is shrinking
  • shortages of physical resources -> derail ambitions of some countries eg india or growing pollution -> stall growth eg china
  • countries with modern infrastructure , balances economic sectors and good energy supplies eg china brazil -> better than ones yet to develop these eg india nigeria
• china: strengths

  GDP by 2020 = 2nd

  strength

  • powerful manufacturing economy
  • growing military power and tech
• china: weaknesses

  • ageing pop
  • unwilling to engage with global problems
  • environmental probs
• india:strengths

  gdp by 2020 = 5th

  strengths

  • youthful population, demographic dividend
  • global leader in IT tech
• India: weaknesses

  • widespread poverty
  • poor energy and transport infrastructure
  • lack of water resources
• brazil:strengths

  gdp by 2020= 12th

  strengths

  • huge natural resources and farming potential
  • modern economic structure
• brazil: weaknesses

  • economy has boom and bust cycles
  • limited military strength
  • political populism
• russia: strengths

  gdp by 2030= 11th

  strengths

  • v powerful nuclear armed military
  • large oil and gas reserves
• russia: weaknesses

  • difficult relations with rest of the world
  • ageing population