2.3. Theory of Demographic Transition

• The birth rate of a country depends on the fertility rate.
• Economic development affects birth rate and death rate, hence determines the population growth
• Population growth affects economic development, especially in developing countries
• In developed countries, an increase in the population means an increase in the workforce, it helps improve their economy
• In developing countries, population growth is responsible for the increase in the magnitude of poverty and causes environmental degradation
• Theory of Demographic Transition explains the effect of economic development on the population growth of the countries
• Stage 1 is called High population growth potential stage.
• In Stage 2, death rate is decreasing due to improvements in food supply and sanitation
• In our world today, under the Stage 2 is the Afghanistan
• Stage 1 is characterized by high and fluctuating birth and death rates which will almost neutralize each other; population growth is typically very slow in this stage.
• The society in Stage 1 is pre-industrial (i.e. agricultural) in which most people live in rural areas.
• Stage 2 is called the stage of population explosion
• Birth rates fall in Stage 3 due to the impact of economic development, changed social attitudes, and various fertility factors
• The birth rate decline in developed countries started in the late 19th century in northern Europe
• Stage 4 is called the stage of stationary population; both birth rate and death rate are at a low level
• Countries under Stage 4: Germany, Italy, Japan
• Countries under Stage 4 experience a shrinking population
• Stage 5 is defined as the stage with below-replacement fertility levels
• The UN anticipates the population growth will triple between 2011 and 2100 in high-fertility countries, which are currently concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa
• For countries with intermediate fertility rates (the United States, India, and Mexico all fall into this category), growth is expected to be about 26%
• Low-fertility countries like China, Australia, and most of Europe will actually see population declines of approximately 20%