Prime minister a victim of events?

• Paragraph 1: Economic shocks constrain PMs' choices -> Economic events can derail agendas and force PMs to react defensively. -> Liz Truss (2022) was effectively brought down by market panic following her unfunded “mini-budget”—with bond yields rising and the pound falling. -> This shows how economic forces beyond direct control (e.g., investor confidence) can destroy a PM’s authority almost overnight.-> Voting Behaviour & Media Truss’s rapid fall was intensified by negative media framing and public panic -> highlighting how modern PMs are exposed to media pressure and fast public opinion swings, influencing both policy and survival.
• Paragraph 2: Foreign affairs can overpower domestic priorities -> Unexpected global events often dominate the PM’s time and overshadow their agenda. -> David Cameron’s premiership was defined less by domestic reform and more by international crises—the Syrian civil war, EU migration surge, and ultimately the Brexit referendum.🡒 His failure to control the EU debate and the unexpected Leave result in 2016 forced his resignation -> Democracy & Electoral Systems -> The Brexit vote showed how direct democracy (referendums)can override parliamentary government and impose massive constraints on a PM—undermining the elective mandate model.
• Argument 3: Pandemics expose limits of centralised control -> Health crises can overwhelm even powerful PMs, making them reactive rather than strategic. -> Boris Johnson’s handling of COVID-19 was reactive, with delayed lockdowns and the Partygate scandal later undermining public trust. -> His premiership became dominated by the pandemic response—he lost control of the narrative and eventually his party’s confidence. -> Participation & Trust in Politics: Public trust declined sharply during and after COVID, with polling showing falling confidence in leadership -> showing how external crises can erode democratic legitimacy.
• Counter argument 1: Skilled PMs use events to their advantage -> Some PMs have used crises to consolidate power and reputation -> Rishi Sunak gained popularity as Chancellor during COVID with the furlough scheme, later using that reputation to win the Conservative leadership in 2022. -> PMs can adapt to events and use them as political capital—not all are purely reactive. -> Voting Behaviour The popularity of economic responses like “Eat Out to Help Out” shows how policy timing and perception can shift public support, giving PMs strategic advantage even amid crisis.
• Counter argument 2: PMs shape the political response to events -> PMs are not passive, they choose how to frame, respond to, or even initiate key events -> Tony Blair chose to support the Iraq War in 2003, turning it into a defining part of his legacy. -> This shows agency—he could have chosen a different path but shaped UK foreign policy through political will. -> Blair’s media management (“spin”) shaped public perception early on, showing how leadership style and control of the narrative matter as much as the events themselves.
• Counter argument 3: Strong mandates reduce vulnerability to events

  -> PMs with large majorities or strong electoral mandates are better able to resist pressure from events. -> Boris Johnson, post-2019 election landslide, was initially able to ignore criticism over early COVID missteps and press ahead with Brexit. -> With a secure Commons majority, external shocks did not immediately weaken his authority. -> Johnson’s strong first-past-the-post majority gave him more breathing room than minority PMs—showing the link between electoral strength and executive resilience.