Hurricane Forecasting

• Hurricanes are monitored at the NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida
• The NHC issues hurricane advisories, watches, warnings and forecasts using computer models and ensemble forecasting
• Ensemble forecasting


  Looking at multiple models and finding an average of the model's outputs along with the spread of the outputs
• The NHC provides information on storms from satellite, radar and direct aircraft observations into the eyewall of the hurricane via the hurricane hunters
• The NHC provides hurricane awareness resources to ensure proper safety practices if a hurricane is approaching
• Cone of uncertainty


  The forecasting of a hurricane track that includes all the different models and their forecasts
• The cone of uncertainty gets wider the further out the forecast goes
• Hurricanes are particularly hard to forecast due to the competition of the hurricane with the dynamics of the atmosphere and other weather systems
• The forecast for Hurricane Sandy changed radically between 4.5 days and 2.5 days before landfall, with the European model correctly predicting the hard left turn into the mid-Atlantic
• After the Hurricane Sandy forecast issues, more resources were put into improving hurricane forecasting capabilities
• By the very active 2017 hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center's track and intensity forecasts had significantly improved compared to 2012-2016
• Hurricane hunter aircraft fly directly into the center of hurricanes to take measurements with drop sondes
• The data from the drop sondes is transmitted via satellite back to the National Hurricane Center