2019

• Overview Of The General Election Result and Impact

  • The December election was called by Boris Johnson in order to try and secure support for the Withdrawal Agreement he had negotiated with the EU. The current parliament wasn’t passing it so he had to go to the country.
  • The Conservative Party led with the slogan ‘Get Brexit Done’.
• • The election was the first landslide election in nearly 20 years, with the Conservatives winning an 80 seat majority, with 43.6%, the highest percentage of any party since Thatcher was first elected in 1979.
  • The Conservatives’ gains were in large part due to their ability to break the ‘Red Wall’; Labour heartlands in the North.
  • Labour won just 202 seats, its lowest since 1935, with 40% of the vote.
• • The election effectively ended hope for remaining in the EU and resulted in Jeremy Corbyn’s resignation and the end of Corbynism.
  • The Lib Dems increased their vote share by 11.6% but won just 11 seats.
• Issue Voting and Competence:

  • Brexit was without doubt the key issue of the election and had a major impact on the result. The Conservative Party led with the slogan ‘Get Brexit Done’, whilst the Labour Party supported a second referendum on Brexit.
  • The 2019 election was a key example of this. 74% of Leave voters voted for the Tories (including many in the Red Wall who had never done so before), whilst 49% of Remain voters voted Labour.
• Issue Voting and Competence:

  • Elsewhere in policy, Labour was seen as far too radical and not trusted with the economy, due to its very left wing manifesto that included major spending pledges and 6 big nationalisations.
  • Corbyn was presented and seen by many as unfit to govern
  • Both parties pledged to end austerity, but Labour pledged to increase spending by a lot more.
• Leadership:

  • Leadership was certainly key. Jeremy Corbyn was unprecedentedly unpopular as leader, with many former Labour voters citing this as a key reason why they switched their vote.
  • The fact he took no position on Brexit was seen as weak, whilst he was heavily criticised for allowing antisemitism to grow in the Labour Party.
  • The media was very critical of Corbyn and helped to fuel his unpopularity.
  • Boris Johnson was also very popular and able to reach beyond the Conservative Party’score vote in a way few Conservatives were able to.
• The Campaign:

  • The 2019 campaign had little impact on the result of the election.
  • The Conservative party started with a dominant lead in the polls and it never really wavered. There was never confidence in the polls and a feeling Labour would surge, though, due to what happened in 2017.
  • Boris Johnson and the Tories tried to focus almost exclusively on Brexit ‘Get Brexit Done’.
  • Labour tried to move the focus away from Brexit and onto their economic proposals, but were largely unable to.
• There were a few possible events which could have influenced the result, e.g a picture of a boy having to sleep on the floor in a hospital , but the Conservative lead in the polling remained relatively steady throughout.
• The Media:

  • There were two TV debates between the two leaders, but neither had a significant impact on voters’ opinions, with neither leader performing particularly well.
  • Corbyn and Labour were harmed by an interview Corbyn had with Andrew Neil, in which he performed poorly.
  • Boris Johnson refused to do an interview with Andrew Neil, despite having previously agreed to do so.
  • Corbyn was presented extremely negatively by large parts of the media, especially the right wing press.
• • Age and education continued to be key social factors in predicting the outcome.
  • The Tories won 57% of the vote among over-60s and 67% among over-70s.
  • In the 2019 election, 43% of those with a degree or higher voted for Labour, 17% for the Lib Dems and just 29% for the Conservatives.
  • The Conservative Party won 58% of the votes among those whose highest level of education was GCSE or lower (YouGov).
• Key Points:

  • The Conservative Party won 58% of the votes among those whose highest level of education was GCSE or lower (YouGov).
  • Issue voting on Brexit was key to the result.
  • Leadership played an important role, especially Corbyn’s unpopularity.
  • The campaign had little impact on the result.
  • Age and education continued to be key social factors, whilst there was a key regional shiftin the former ‘Red Wall’.