TSES 4002 Exam Notes

• Forecasting


  Gaining insights into the future, reducing uncertainty, outsmarting competitors, preparing for upcoming events
• Forecasting methods


  1. Traditional statistical methods

  2. Speculative fiction (imagining future scenarios)
• Mastering forecasting is crucial for navigating the unpredictable and devising strategies to tackle future challenges effectively
• Dominant Western Worldview (DWW)


  Assumes human supremacy, focuses on human ability to shape destiny, sees the world as full of opportunities, believes in unending progress
• Human Exceptionalism Paradigm (HEP) believes that what makes humans unique comes from our culture. It thinks that changes in society are due to culture and technology and sees nature as less important. It also believes that we can solve problems by making more progress.
• New Ecological Paradigm (NEP)


  sees humans as part of nature. It recognizes that we rely on the environment and emphasizes that there are natural limits we can't ignore. This view respects the rules of ecology that must be followed.
• Tesla's evolution


  Elon Musk describes Tesla's evolution into a significant global car manufacturer, with expansion goals across different continents
• Tesla is often discussed in terms of technological flaws that have led to fatalities, highlighting the human aspect in the deployment of autonomous technologies
• Tesla faces the dual challenge of ensuring technological reliability and conforming to legal and insurance standards with its autonomous vehicles
• Electric car technology


  Dates back more than a century, but its broad acceptance is fairly recent
• The popularity of technologies like electric cars in specific periods is influenced by socio-economic, cultural, and technological factors
• Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics

  1. A robot must not harm humans
  2. A robot must obey humans unless it conflicts with the first law
  3. A robot must protect its own existence unless such protection conflicts with the first two laws
• These laws raise important ethical questions about the interactions between humans and machines and the potential risks of autonomous systems
• Importance of Ethicists


  With the evolution of technologies like autonomous vehicles, ethical considerations become critical. Ethicists focus on the trust between technology and users, emphasizing the potential risks and ethical dilemmas posed by automation
• Automation presents ethical challenges related to trust, safety, and responsibility, which ethicists address through comprehensive, interdisciplinary methods
• Mantra of Silicon Valley - "Fail Better"


  Encourages learning from failures and continuously improving through iterative processes. In the realm of tech innovation, failure is seen as a necessary step toward eventual success
• Samuel Beckett: 'Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better.'
• Ancient Greek Divination


  Greeks used divination as a tool to manage uncertainty about the future, seeking advice from supernatural sources rather than using risk assessments
• Oracle at Delphi


  A female medium, Pythia, communicated the words of the gods. Her statements, influenced by Apollo, were interpreted by priests or the individuals themselves
• Augury


  This ancient practice involved reading omens from birds. It was considered arbitrary and heavily reliant on personal interpretation, reflecting an acceptance of randomness in decision-making processes
• Divination offered a method to address uncertainty and make informed choices in the face of unpredictability
• Black Swan


  Events that are unlikely to happen but have huge effects and are often explained in reflection. Illustrates the limitations of predictions and the inherent unpredictability of certain phenomena
• As technologies evolve, legal and ethical frameworks struggle to keep pace, necessitating continuous updates to accommodate new innovations like electric vehicles
• Technological advancements often aim to provide certainty, but the inherent uncertainty in predicting technological impacts and interactions remains a significant challenge
• The Clock of the Long Now

  A symbolic project designed to foster long-term thinking, encouraging a shift in perception about time, from immediate to very long-term perspectives, emphasizing our inheritance and bequeathal of the future
• Long Bets


  An initiative by the Foundation to promote long-term thinking through public bets on significant societal topics, fostering discussions about enduring issues
• Technological advancements and cultural narratives have shifted our perspective of the future from a distant to an almost immediate concept
• The CN Tower, originally intended to be a lasting monument, faced potential demolition scenarios linked to commercial development, reflecting short-term economic interests over historical or cultural preservation
• Delphi Method


  Developed to systematize expert opinions on the likelihood and timing of future events, using iterative surveys to refine consensus
• RAND


  Research ANd Development, reflecting its origins and ongoing commitment to scientific and policy research
• RAND conducts a variety of analytical methodologies including trend analysis and bibliometrics to inform policy and strategic decisions
• Coates highlights the importance of recognizing when assumptions about the future become outdated, which can hinder effective decision-making and adaptation to new realities
• Focusing solely on an oil company might overlook broader shifts toward renewable energy sources like solar and wind. Analyzing the entire energy sector, including renewables, offers a holistic view of emerging trends, such as the increase in electric vehicle use and regulatory pressures for sustainable energy, which are crucial for strategic planning
• Technological disruptions, regulatory changes, consumer preference shifts, and environmental and social pressures are examples of when industry-level focus is more useful for forecasting and strategic decision-making
• The transformation from a hopeful, utopian field of futurology to one more grounded in systematic scientific analysis reflects broader societal shifts from idealism to pragmatism in facing future challenges
• Cybernetics and systems theory contributed to a sense of control over future developments but also led to a proliferation of potential future scenarios that required new forms of management and adaptation
• Initiatives like Mankind 2000 and the Club of Rome emphasized a global approach to future studies, focusing on shared human futures and systemic global challenges
• Relying on outdated worldviews and data can lead to misjudgments about the future, as these often fail to account for new variables and shifts in conditions
• Billy Mitchell, a U.S. Army general, intuitively foresaw the vulnerability of battleships to air power long before this was widely accepted. Despite his accurate predictions, including potential attacks on Pearl Harbor, he was court-martialed for his outspoken views
• The Cassandra Complex is exemplified in the story of Roger Boisjoly, who foresaw the Challenger Space Shuttle disaster. He warned against launching due to unsafe conditions but was ignored, leading to a tragic accident