5.3 Climate Change

• Climate Change - any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC)
• IPCC - Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change
• Effects of Climate Change

  * Increase in minimum (nighttime) temperatures, maximum (daytime) temperatures, and increases in the global mean temperature
• Effects of Climate Change

  * Increase in sea surface temperatures, sea level and changes in evaporation, and thus, changes in rainfall patterns among others
• Effects of Climate Change

  * Extreme changes in weather patterns
• Global average surface temperature increased by 0.74 C (1906-2005) which is higher than the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of 0.6 C (1901-2000)
• Climate Change is due to Global Warming - warming of the climate system is unequivocal and that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC)
• Effects of Climate Change

  * Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8mm per year over 1961 to 2003 or a total of 0.17m for the 21st century
• Effects of Climate Change

  * There are projected increases from 1.4 C to 5.8 C during the 21st century leading to an increase in the sea level from 18-59 cm by 2100
• Effects of Climate Change

  * In the Philippines, under the A1B scenario, mean annual temperatures are expected to rise by about 0.9 C to 1.2 C for 2020 and 1.7 C to 2.2 C by 2050
• The increase in temperature that will be realized by 2100 will depend on several factors including:

  * Population growth

  * Amount and manner of developments

  * Adoption of environmentally clean technologies

  * And measures/strategies to be put in place by the global community
• Climate Change and Environmental Impacts

  * Coastal Areas

  * Water Resources

  * Agriculture

  * Industry and Energy

  * Human Health

  * Forests Biodiversity
• Impacts of Climate Change - Coastal and Marine Ecosystem

  Sea level rise will greatly affect coastal areas through:

  * Inundation and erosion

  * Increased flooding, and

  * Salt-water intrusion,

  * And may even cause extreme events like high tides, storm surges and tsunamis
• Impacts of Climate Change - Coastal and Marine Ecosystem

  Bleaching of the coral reefs is associated with the loss of symbiotic algae and/or their pigments, and the death of the corals if the warming of the sea surface temperatures are prolonged
• Impacts of Climate Change - Coastal and Marine Ecosystem

  * Increased ocean acidity
• Impacts of Climate Change - Water Resources

  * Climate change will influence the hydrological cycle, changing, evaporation, precipitation and runoff patterns which could affect water resources
• Impacts of Climate Change - Water Resources

  * For extreme weather events - more intense rainfall in the northern parts of the country; less rainfall/drought and water scarcities in provinces along and below the equator
• Impacts of Climate Change - Agriculture and Food Security

  * For every 1 C increase in temperature, rice yields will decrease by 10%-15% (IRRI)
• IRRI - International Rice Research Institution
• Impacts of Climate Change - Agriculture and Food Security

  * Water for agriculture is critical for food security. Agriculture is by far the biggest consumer of water worldwide. To raise a ton of rice, a thousand gallons of water are needed (IRRI)
• Impacts of Climate Change - Human Health

  Potential Impacts on Heath due to sea level rise:

  * Death and injury due to flooding

  * Reduced availability of freshwater due to saltwater intrusion
• Impacts of Climate Change - Forest/Wildlife Biodiversity

  * Increased outbreaks of pests and diseases

  * Increased risk of forest fires

  * Change in species distribution, composition and abundance

  * Invasion of weeds and alien species

  * Displacement of native plant/forest species

  * Loss of plant and animal species

  * Migration of plant and animal species

  * Loss of wetlands
• Philippine Vulnerability to Climate Change

  According to the United Nations, vulnerability to climate change will be greater in developing countries, which are located in warmer latitudes, like the Philippines
• Philippine Vulnerability to Climate Change

  Highly Susceptible to Floodings and Inundations

  *Archipelago, composed of low-lying small islands

  *70% of cities and municipalities are coastal areas

  *Highly susceptible to flooding and storm surges
• Philippine Vulnerability to Climate Change

  Low Agricultural Productivity - Rice production in the Philippines will decline by as much as 75%. An increase of 1 degree in temperature in the tropics means an agricultural yield decline by as much as 10%
• Highly Susceptible to Loss of Biological Resources - according to UN, 20%-30% of plant and animal species may become extinct as a result of climate change
• Climate Change in the Philippines means becoming drier and becoming wetter
• Impacts of Climate Change - other extreme weather/climate events like intense rains have been seen to be more frequent