4.2 Demographic Transition

• Demographic Transition


  Historical shift of birth and death rates from high to low levels in a population.
• General Trends

  No country is in Stage 1, only the most remote tribes and societies.

  
  

  Poorest developing countries are in Stage 2.

  
  

  Most developing countries that have registered significant social and economic advances are in Stage 3.

  
  

  All the developed countries of the world are in Stage 4 or 5.
• Stage 1

  Crude BR is high and stable.

  
  

  Crude DR is high and sporadic due to fluctuations in famine, disease and war.

  
  

  Pop. growth is slow with periods of decline.

  
  

  IMR is high.

  
  

  LE is low.
• Stage 2

  Death rate falls significantly.

  
  

  Rate of natural change increases to a peak.

  
  

  Better nutrition, better public health, clean water supplies and efficient sewerage systems and medical advances.
• Stage 3

  Social norms adjust to the lower level of mortality.

  
  

  BR declines.

  
  

  LE continues to increase.

  
  

  IMR continues to decrease.
• Stage 4


  BR and DR are both low.

  
  

  Pop. growth is slow.

  
  

  DR rises slightly as avg. age of pop. increases.

  
  

  LE still improves.
• Stage 5

  BR is lower than DR -Natural Decrease.

  Without migration inflows, populations are declining.
• Criticisms of the DTM

  Seen as too Eurocentric - based off Western European experiences.

  
  

  Many developing countries may not follow the sequence set out in the model.

  
  

  It fails to take migration into account.
• DTM transitions in the developing world

  BR in Stages 1 + 2 is generally higher.

  
  

  DR fell much more steeply for a variety of reasons.

  
  

  Some countries had much larger base pop. and thus impact of high growth in stage 2 + 3 has been greater.

  
  

  Countries in stage 3 experienced a sharper fall in fertility.
• Issues of ageing populations

  Global pop. is ageing significantly.

  
  

  Global avg. has increased from 46yrs in 1950 to 65yrs in 2000.

  
  

  Europe is oldest region in the world.

  
  

  Africa is youngest region of the world. (43% of pop are children)
• Link between pop. and devt.

  Development improves quality of life.

  
  

  E.g. Local food supply improves with advances in machinery and fertilisers.

  
  

  Electricity grids extend to rural areas.
• Human Development Index (HDI)


  Indicator of level of development for each country, constructed by United Nations, combining income, literacy, education, and life expectancy.
• Changes in Demographic Indices over time