stats

• Scientific method

  How things work, cause and effect
• Objective evidence


  • Can prove a hypothesis
• What makes science similar to reporting

  • Gathering evidence
  • Trying to prove something
• The more facts you have the better your argument is accepted
• Differences between science and reporting

  • How facts are gathered (scientific method)
  • What it is trying to prove (science - general laws, journalism - specific events)
  • Trying to be very objective in science
• When is science bad science?

  • Not making correct or systematic observations
  • P hacking (cherry picking data)
  • Not making accurate or valid measures
  • Bad experimental designs
• P hacking


  Taking a sample of 10,000 and only using 200 of the people since they showed significance
• To get around p hacking, you have to preregister your research
• Steps to being critical

  • Personal experience
  • Beliefs and expectations
  • Common sense
• Personal experience


  Logical? Based on your past experience what refutes that information
• Beliefs and expectations


  • Unexpected observation should be questionable
  • If it goes against the existing data, it should be questioned
  • Biases? Observer bias?
• Common sense can lead you to the wrong conclusion, need facts and experience not just 'sounds right'
• Ways scientific research is conducted

  • Curiosity
  • Systematic observation (having a plan and being consistent)
  • Systematic experimentation (preregistering, no changes on the fly)
  • Tribalistic antecedents-consequences (using statistics)
• Psychology relies more on statistics than other disciplines due to the variables of humans
• Objectivity


  • If everyone is being totally objective everyone should come to the same conclusion
  • Different observers' familiars with the event will independently and consistently tie a particular label to a particular object or event
• Objectivity and subjectivity in science


  • Objective measurements
  • Subjective hypothesis (intuition, past thoughts and ideas)
• Ways of acquiring knowledge

  • Tenacity (sticking with something because you've always done it, superstitions, accepting information as true because it's always been believed)
  • Intuition (accepting information on the basis of a hunch)
  • Authority (relying on information from an expert)
  • Pseudoscience (anecdotal evidence, systems of ideas presented as science)
  • Rationalism (systematic and logical development of hypotheses that can be tested)
• Rationalism


  Allows systematic and logical development of tentative statements (hypotheses) that can be tested
• If the premises in rationalism are inaccurate or false, it can lead to false conclusions
• Necessary vs sufficient conditions

  • Sufficient - if a condition is satisfied, the other condition will occur
  • Necessary - the first condition must be present for the other condition to occur
• Necessary and sufficient is the gold standard, meaning it is the only thing that can cause that event to occur
• Empiricism


  Gathering observable data, gaining knowledge through our senses, is objective
• Empiricism is the beginning of science, but it needs to be more structured with control for variables and systematic design
• Steps of the scientific method

  • Observe behaviour or other phenomena
  • Form a tentative answer or explanation (hypothesis)
  • Use hypothesis to generate a testable prediction
  • Evaluate the prediction by making systematic planned observations
  • Use the observations to support, refute, or refine the original hypothesis
• Variables


  Characteristics or conditions that change or have different values for different individuals
• Hypothesis


  Statement that describes or explains a relationship between variables, a "best guess"
• A hypothesis can lead to several different observations and measurable predictions
• Independent variable (IV)


  The variable the researcher manipulates to see the effect on the dependent variable
• Characteristics of good experiments/research

  • Have clearly interpretable results that are empirical and objective
  • Are replicable
  • Eliminate alternative hypotheses
  • Support or falsify current hypothesis
  • Suggest other ways of investigating the question
  • Are disseminated to the public
• Characteristics of good theories

  • Are testable
  • Have the technology and methodology to test them
  • Explain data from prior research
  • Can simplify other previous theories (parsimony)
  • Can generate new lines of research
• Parsimony


  Simplifying a theory by using fewer hypothetical variables
• Inductive reasoning


  Going from a small set of observations to forming a general statement about a larger set of possible observations
• Deductive reasoning


  Going from a general statement to reaching a conclusion about specific examples
• Inductive reasoning is the basis for forming a theory, while deductive reasoning is for testing a theory
• How science is different from other methods of inquiry

  • Theology (can't falsify, can't test)
  • Art (very subjective)
  • Journalism (more anecdotal, more biases)
• Psychology is considered a 'softer' science because the variables are more hypothetical and harder to define
• Importance of the scientific method

  • Stood the test of time
  • Systematic view
  • Objective views
  • Good way of acquiring knowledge
• Objectivity


  Everyone comes to the same result
• Characteristics of good science

  • Leads to new avenues of discovery
  • Clearly defines variables
  • Can be tested
  • Can be falsified
• Objectivity and subjectivity in science

  Subjectivity and biases are needed to come up with new theories, but objectivity is needed to test them