Voting behaviour

• Deviant voting


  Occurs when a person does not vote the ay we would expect, given their social characteristics, especially their class. Eg working-class Conservatives and wealthy entrepreneurial Labour supporters
• Contextual factors =

  Economy

  Scandals

  Crime

  Welfare

  Brexit
• Social factors =

  Gender

  Age

  Region

  Ethnicity
• Party identification theory

  The voting theory that suggests voters have an attachment to a particular party and strong affiliations to it due to the influences of their upbringing and families political beliefs

  
  

  Link to party dealignment
• Sociological Theory

  The way in which people's social characteristics influenced their participation - social class (middle class are expected to vote conservative / working class are strongly pro-labour)

  
  

  Link to class dealignment
• Rational choice theory

  A theory that states that individuals act in their own best interest which occurs when voting
• Dominant ideology theory

  Individual choices are influenced by media misrepresentation- newspapers and tv distorts the process of political communication as they help the agenda for debate and provide partial coverage for the news - prominent in dealignment as there is an absence of traditional factors such as class/party loyalty because voters are more likely swayed by what they hear/see/read
• Euro-skepticism

  The criticism of the European Union (EU) and European integration - Brexit Party, Borris Johnson
• Europhile

  A person who admires Europe and is in favour of participation in the EU - SNP and Scotland
• Turnout

  The percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot and participate in an election
• Floating (or swing) voter


  A voter who tends to vote unpredictably in different elections and who is liable to change the way they vote fairly often
• Deference

  Tendency for some members of this class to 'defer' to or respect those whom they considered to be their superiors
• Disillusionment and Apathy

  Extent to which people become increasingly disengaged with politics reflected through low turnout. Consists of the idea that politics cannot change anything for them.

  - Prominent among young people and usually forces down the level of turnout
• Core votes

  Voters who will invariably support one of the main parties
• Abstention

  The act of refraining voluntarily go vote because they wish to protest the collective failure of political parties or lack of a party which effectively represents them
• Partisan dealignment

  The decline in strong voter attachment or identification with a specific political party, which they have detached themselves from
• Class dealignment

  whereby progressively fewer people consider themselves to be a member of a particular social class and do has a decreasing impact on their voting behaviour
• Valence issue

  Where most of the electorate hold similar views on an issue, they may decide to vote for one party or another based on how well they think the party and/or its leader will manage that issue, as well as on a judgement of how well the party managed it in the past. Valence also refer to the general 'image' of a party and its leader which may affect voting behaviour.
• Expressive/altruistic voting

  Where a voter will derive satisfaction if he or she votes for a party that will benefit society as a whole
• Rational choice model

  A voting model that argues that voters make a rational, conscious, self-interested choice between the parties when voting, based on a variety of short-term factors
• Instrumental voting

  Voting behaviour which is motivated by self-interest. Voters favour the party that they believe will do most good for themselves through its policies
• Political Opinion Polls

  Completed by research organisations using a sample of typical voters - mainly used to establish voting intentions and gauge the leaders' popularity and importance of current issues affecting voters
• What do constituency safe seats cause in terms of other voters

  Voters in the elections may feel that their first-choice vote will be wasted as it is for a smaller / minority party that does not have a strong chance of winning the constituency - can cause the voter to change their vote to a second choice
• ELECTIONS

  2019 - Johnson vs Corbyn

  
  

  2017 - May vs Corbyn

  
  

  1997 - Blair vs Major

  
  

  1979 - Thatcher vs Callaghan
• 1979 turnout

  76%
• 1979 election result % of seats

  Thatcher Conservative majority - 53% of seats (first female PM elected) with a 5.2% of swing votes from labour

  
  

  Labour had 42% of the seats
• 1979 election seats won

  Conservative = 339

  Labour = 269
• 1979 factors

  Winter of Discontent in 1979, incompetence of James Callaghan, rising strikes due to trade union power
• 1979 factors affecting outcome

  Wave of public sector strikes between 78-79 as people punished the Labour Party for not controlling the trade union power

  
  

  Economy was in poor state due to high inflation, industrial strikes which led to the Winter of Discontent caused in the hands of the Labour Party

  
  

  The extent of state regulation and controlling industries as opposed to a free market was a prominent issue
• 1979 Thatcher's campaign

  Used modern advertising through considerable photo ops for thatcher with the working class to increase votes, billboards

  
  

  Pledged to control inflation after the winter of discontent, which caused more success

  
  

  Aimed to privatise recently nationalised industries and remove trade union powers

  
  

  Promised to expand home ownership and grow the size of the middle class = lowering the working class

  
  

  Thatcher had a tough, aggressive approach which promised a fresh start - showed to be more competent for the economy compared to Callaghan (sunny Jim)
• What was Thatchers majority in 1979?

  Parliamentary majority of 43 seats
• Which former PM incumbent lead Margaret Thatcher by 20% in the popularity polls but ended up losing the 1979 election?

  James Callaghan
• How many seats did the Conservatives win in 1979 and what was the change since previous election?

  339 / increase of 63
• What was the main factor in deciding the 1979 general

  Which party would deal with the trade unions the best. Wanted to end the 'Winter of Discontent
• What % of 18-24 year olds vote Conservative in 1979?

  42%
• What was the demographic issue of the 1979 election?

  There was a decline in the number of people describing themselves as 'working class
• 1997 turnout

  71.4%
• 1997 result

  Blair had a landslide labour victory with 63.4% of the seats

  
  

  31% of registered voters voted labour and they had 10.2% swing votes

  
  

  Lib Dems gained 28 seats

  
  

  Conservatives lost 178 seats - labour gained 145
• 1997 labour manifesto and policies

  Abandoned nationalisation, tax increases and strengthened unions

  
  

  Stricter law and order policies

  
  

  Had endorsement from most of the media and press such as the sun and times

  
  

  Targeted marginal seats using a public relations expert

  
  

  3rd way policies appealed to the middle class

  
  

  Promised huge investments in NHS and education
• 1997 labour campaign

  Blair's campaign was centrist, adoption of right policies and fiscal responsibility - picked up many dissatisfied tories hence 10.2% swing of votes